Why Pundits Love the Steelers to Cover Against the Ravens, plus 2 Ways to Bet the Seahawks-49ers – .

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Why Pundits Love the Steelers to Cover Against the Ravens, plus 2 Ways to Bet the Seahawks-49ers – .


NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions



Crows at Steelers

To take
Steelers +4.5
Best book
Time
16 h 25 HE

Chris Raybon : Since John Harbaugh became head coach of the Ravens in 2008, only nine of the 26 games between the two teams (35%) have been decided by more than four points.

Lamar Jackson has struggled in his last five starts, throwing seven touchdowns with nine interceptions while failing to pass more than 266 yards in any game. He also hasn’t rushed for a TD since Week 2. Stepping into a harsh Pittsburgh environment with TJ Watt potentially activated on the COVID list isn’t exactly a great place for Jackson.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, the Steelers compete well with the Ravens. Baltimore is better at stopping the run (fifth in the Football Outsiders DVOA) than the pass (24th), but Pittsburgh’s offensive success isn’t based on the run given their line’s struggles to get people out of the way. ball. The Ravens also play men’s cover at the fourth-highest rate, and the Steelers have been more effective against men’s cover than the zone this season.

And although Mike Tomlin let us down last week, he’s still 44-36 (56%) ATS after a loss, 38-16-2 (70%) ATS as a dog at from week 3 and 29-8-1 (78%) as a dog against an opponent with equal or greater win percentage (according to our Action Labs data).

I would bet at +4.


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49ers chez Seahawks

To take
Seahawks +3,5
Best book

Time
16 h 25 HE

Brandon Anderson : The 49ers are the hot team, but this trap game screams.

Russell Wilson is clearly not himself, but he’s improving a bit every week, and that deep ball was back on Monday night. The 49ers’ pass defense was elusive and DK Metcalf dominated them. Additionally, Wilson is 24-12-2 (67%) ATS as an underdog.

Plus, as beautiful as the Niners were, they looked just as good because they eventually got healthy. The return of Trent Williams and George Kittle has made this attack play as well as any over the past month – it turns out the return of your top two players is helping. But the 49ers lost Deebo Samuel and Fred Warner last week, which is a big deal. Samuel has been one of the most dangerous weapons in the league, and Warner is one of the best linebackers in the NFL and would have been a major weapon limiting Wilson.

Additionally, Seattle dominated San Francisco for nearly a decade. The Seahawks won 14 of 16 over the Niners, including a 28-21 victory in San Francisco two months ago. Pete Carroll is 7-2 against Kyle Shanahan, including 2-1 as an underdog. And that’s exactly where we go Shanahan, when he’s a favorite – he’s only 11–22–1 (33%) ATS as a favorite and even worse as a road favorite at 4-15. -1 (21%). Underdog moneylines against Shanahan are reporting 69% ROI over the past two seasons.

There’s another big trend in our favor: Teams on a three-game losing streak (like Seattle) are 59-32-2 ATS against opponents on two- or three-game winning streaks (like San Francisco). ), covering 65% of the time, including seven times in a row and already twice this season. It’s just the parity of the NFL. Seattle is not as bad as its record and that line is overblown due to the last few weeks of results.

I like it up to +3.


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49ers chez Seahawks

To take
Over 45.5
Best book

Time
16 h 25 HE

Stucky : There is some value in that due to the recent poor production from the Seattle offense and some very lucky performances from his defense.

The Seahawks’ offense ranks fourth in expected points added (EPA) per game in the first downs, which is usually the recipe for success. However, they come last (32nd) in this same category in the third and fourth downs – two downs that usually have a much higher variance. They rank last for conversion rate at third (32.5%) and last for conversion rate at fourth (16.67%). A positive regression is looming for this offense.

Plus, it’s fair to assume that Wilson will end up playing better. Many have suggested his initial injury was a 7-8 week injury. Well, he’s just hit that mark, so he could potentially be back to full health this weekend against a 49ers defense struggling with a few key injuries.

Meanwhile, that SF offense has rolled recently, ranking third in the EPA per game since Week 7. Even without Deebo Samuel, the 49ers should have no problem moving the ball against what should be an exhausted Seahawks defense. The Seahawks not only have to travel across the country for a short week after a Monday night affair in the nation’s capital, but they were on the field that game for over 41 minutes!

Plus, that defense just isn’t that good – as evidenced by a 25th rank in EPA per game and 29th in hit rate, including 32nd in recoil hit rate (they also lost Tre Brown to the corner) . Despite those putrid measures, they rank sixth in the D score, largely due to a top-five red zone defense. Expect both to correct themselves over the next few weeks. SF’s excellent red zone attack might be the perfect candidate to take full advantage of it.

For what it’s worth, the last seven meetings between these teams had the following point totals: 59, 49, 51, 47, 64, 49 and 49. That’s an average of 52.6 points with no less than 49 , including meeting earlier this season.

I would bet at 46.


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49ers chez Seahawks

To take
Less than 45.5
Best book

Time
16 h 25 HE

Sean Koerner : Last week I bet under 49.5 in 49ers-Vikings, but a handful of early plays have ruined it: the 49ers returning a Kirk Cousins ​​interception at the 2-yard line (then scoring on the next game), the Vikings returning a kickoff 99 yards for a touchdown, and Adam Thielen scored when the Vikings attempted the shot in the fourth and second. Then the game came to a screeching halt in the fourth quarter, when neither team scored.

I’m certainly not looking for excuses – a loss is a loss – but this specific loss only gave us a better number this week.

I expect the 49ers ‘offense to continue to generate heavy and lethal practice to keep the Seahawks’ offense off the field. The 49ers will be without their primary weapon in Deebo Samuel, resulting in less explosive play. As for the Seahawks, Russell Wilson hasn’t looked at himself since returning from his finger injury three weeks ago, and I don’t expect him to magically change this week.

Division battles at the end of a season tend to be less so, and this one looks like that. I would project this total closer to 43.5 and would bet at 45 points.


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