Estimates based on an experimental model show gross value added (GVA) output for Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and nine English regions (North East, North West, Yorkshire and The Humber, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, South East and South West).
According to further analysis of ONS data by the Financial Times, Northern Ireland is the part of the UK that has seen the biggest recovery from Covid. It grew 1.08% in the third quarter of this year and its economy is only 0.3% lower than it was in the last quarter of 2019.
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London was the second best performing area with production down 1.8% from pre-pandemic levels and was closely followed by Wales.
Wales’ economy was in third place and 1.9% smaller in the third quarter of 2021 than it was at the end of 2019 before the pandemic.
This means Wales’ economy has outperformed most other parts of the UK as it recovers from Covid, including economic output in the West Midlands where the economy was almost 10% lower. to pre-pandemic levels. Scotland, South East England, East Midlands and North East England have all fallen by more than 5% between the last quarter of 2019 and the third quarter of this year.
Economists suggested that the dependence of regions like the Midlands on industry had hit them the hardest due to global supply issues, while the size of the public sector in Northern Ireland had hit them the hardest. protected.
The ONS cautioned, however, that the data should be treated with “some caution” as this is an experimental measurement that could contain errors.
Professor Gerry Holtham, visiting professor at Cardiff Metropolitan University, warned against over-reading the data and said the economic situation has changed since the time period covered by these figures.
‘Northern Ireland and Wales could be closer to their pre-Covid level of economic activity (GVA) in Q1 [the first quarter] 2020 than most other parts of the UK, but their relatively good performance is not holding up this year, ”he told WalesOnline.
“In the second and third quarters of 2021, they both increased according to the latest estimates at a slower pace than the UK average.
“Wales was well below the UK average of 5.5% in the quarter to June and in the quarter to September it was slightly below the UK average of 1.3%.
“It was slower than any English region except the North East and about the same as Scotland and Northern Ireland. The East of England appears to be doing better in 2021.
“You shouldn’t read this data too much. These are model-based estimates and can be revised significantly as more data arrives.
“The overall picture is one of positive growth after the Covid recession, but the momentum seems to be faltering. ”
What is gross value added (GVA)?
Gross value added (GVA) is the measure of economic productivity that measures the contribution of a subsidiary of a company, a company or a municipality to an economy, a producer, a sector or a region.
The GVA is important because it is used in the calculation of GDP, which is a key indicator of the state of a country’s total economy. It can also be used to see the added or lost value of a particular region, state or province.
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