Modelers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LHSTM) hypothesized that everyone was exposed to the virus at the same time to determine how many people in different countries are at risk of hospitalization or death.
Figures for 19 countries were available, allowing a comparable analysis taking into account vaccination levels and infection rates.
In the research – conducted before the emergence of the omicron variant – academics found that England had around 73,000 people at risk of hospitalization and around 15,000 at risk of dying, which equates to 130 hospitalizations and 27 deaths. per 100,000 people.
Only Hungary, at 106, has a smaller proportion of people at risk of hospitalization, while only Denmark, at 24 per 100,000, has a smaller ratio of people vulnerable to death from Covid.
Romania has the highest number of people at risk of hospitalization due to its low vaccination rates, while France (149 per 100,000), Germany (322) and Italy (163) all have a proportion greater than England.
Germany has a population at risk of death more than twice as large as England (65 per 100,000). France (33), Spain (29) and Italy (36) also have larger susceptible populations.