Our NBA analysts offer a sampling of bets for Wednesday night that includes props, spreads and totals. Check out their analysis for four of tonight’s games and their favorite bets below.
NBA odds and selections
Chicago Bulls contre Cleveland Cavaliers
Matt Moore : Based on the full season numbers for both teams (which includes a drop for Cleveland’s week and a half of bad injury and a Bulls squad made up mostly of teams minus Patrick Williams), I have this at Cavs – 3 based on half-court and transition data.
Then you factor in that DeMar DeRozan is out (starring Coby White and Javonte Green), and there’s great value here.
My concern is that the Cavs are ranked 27th in opposing points for turnovers, 29th for turnover, and Chicago is fourth for points on turnovers. It’s Chicago’s lifeline offensively, as the Bulls are the No.1 team with a wide margin of transition points per possession. But Cleveland is better at defense in both half-court and transition, and without DeRozan, Chicago’s offense will be challenged on the road.
Cleveland are 8-3-1 ATS at home this season, and with their three big lineups of Markkanen, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, they have a sizable advantage over Chicago.
I’m going to put the points with a Cavs team that the market has been slow to recognize, especially with DeRozan absent.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Toronto Raptors
Joe Dellera: Scottie Barnes is a stallion. He’s started every game this season and is a legitimate rookie of the year contender with 15.1 points, 8.0 rebounds and 3.2 assists in 35.6 minutes per game for the Raptors. Barnes thrived in this attack and neither the presence of OG Anunoby (who is out tonight) nor Pascal Siakam limited his abilities.
Barnes seems to have added a new element to his offensive repertoire: 3-point shooting. He hadn’t attempted more than three 3-pointers until November 28, since then he has shot nine, six, six and two. The two-attempt game is not surprising given that it was lined up against the Washington Wizards who are the elite not only to limit opportunities by 3 points (frequency 30.5% – No.1), but also to lock these limited attempts (33.9% opponent 3 -percentage in points – # 9), by Cleaning the window.
Thunder? Not really.
The Thunder allows opponents to take the third-highest shooting frequency from a 3-point range, 41.4%, while allowing for the fifth-worst 3-point percentage, 36.8%. They have just been cooked by another Rookie of the Year candidate, Cade Cunningham, who emptied six against them Monday night.
The line tonight is set at 0.5 (-180), which Barnes has crossed in five of his last seven. However, because of the juice, I’m much more interested in its escalator lines. The 2+ 3s accessory is (+240) and the 3+ 3s accessory is (+850) on FanDuel.
Considering the implied odds of those two (29.4% and 10.5% respectively) and the Thunder’s 3-point defense, I think it’s a solid game. DraftKings has 3+ 3 listed at +700, which isn’t nearly as valuable, but if that’s all you’ve got, it’s worth sprinkling in.
Portland Trail Blazers contre Golden State Warriors
Brandon Anderson : Stéphane Curry is getting closer and closer to Ray Allen’s career NBA 3-point shooting record of 2,973.
Well, “slowly” and “incessant” are both pretty blatant lies. Curry is heading for the record at a breakneck pace, and he’s going to beat it very soon. He’s 16 3s away from breaking it and he’s hitting 3s at an even more historic rate than he’s ever done before. He’s making 5.5 treys out of 13.2 attempts per game right now, both at all-time record rates and hitting 42% of them which is somewhat below his career average.
At 5.5 3s per game, Curry is a death lock to break the career record before this road trip is over. That means tonight is his last chance to break the home record ahead of a five-game road trip.
He also plays against the Trail Blazers, the team against which he has the best points average of his career. And by the way, 16 marks would also be a record in one game for 3 seconds, taking the record of teammate Klay Thompson.
I think there’s a real blow, he breaks the all-time record tonight at the Chase Center.
It sounds crazy, but you have to believe that Warriors head coach Steve Kerr will let him rip if he gets close. Curry has made at least 16 3-point attempts on five occasions this season and his record so far is 20. If he gets close to the record, he will far exceed that number.
He’s a career 43.2% shooter and at this rate, if he tries 20 3s, the binomial probability says he has about a 1 in 1123 chance of breaking the record tonight. But if he is close, he should exceed 20 attempts. Instead, give it 23 shots and it suddenly hits 1 in 103.
On 25 attempts, it drops to 1 in 34, or +3300 implied. And remember, it’s 43.2%. Curry is shooting 44.1% for his career at home and 45.3% against Portland. If Curry is getting hot, maybe he pushes that to 50%… or beyond.
PointsBet has special 3-point props for Curry, and one of them is that Curry is breaking the all-time record tonight against Portland. It is listed at 200-1 odds.
I’m playing the narrative and betting the story tonight at home in front of a roaring crowd on ESPN. And if you like the angle, you have a few more ways to cover up in case we got close but couldn’t quite get there. If Curry hits 10 or 12 3s before running out or getting cold, that still gives him a great chance to break the record for the next game in Philadelphia against his brother Seth Curry; you can do this at +900 on PointsBet.
You can also bet Curry to score 40 or more points at +870 at FanDuel tonight. If he gets those 10 or 12 3’s, that’s also pretty easy hedging, and obviously it’s free money if he gets close to our record.
Look, don’t get crazy here. We are literally betting on something that has never happened in league history. Maybe you divide one unit between the three bets, or even half a unit or 0.1 unit. But think of it as an entertainment expense. And think how much fun it will be in that inevitable 90-second period when he hits a threesome of 3 as the crowd erupts and ESPN goes commercial.
It’s a long shot, of course. We know that. But Curry has been hitting long shots his whole life, so why stop now?
Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Kenny Ducey : The LA Clippers may be 11th in Pace, but in the last 10 games they’ve fallen behind in 23rd. The Celtics have been a slow-paced team in almost every division, whether this is for the season or in the last 10 games where they are 17th or below.
Now that we’ve established that this game should be played at a slow pace, which gives it a deservedly low total, we can talk about these defenses, both of which rank in the top 10 in terms of efficiency. The Celtics ‘weakness has been in the restricted area this year, as evidenced by the Lakers’ assault on the edge last night, but that shouldn’t be a problem here.
The Clippers have gone for lines 41.7% of the time and rank 11th in midrange attempts per game this year. Their offense is built around creating shots and three-point jumpers, which should make Boston play. I think both defenses should be successful.
The Celtics will be on the second night of a game in a row here, and in those scenarios the minus has dropped to 9-5-1 this season. In all of the Clippers’ games, the under is 14-11. Given this confrontation between two good defenses and the expected pace, I support these trends to continue. Bring it to 209.5.
Boston Celtics vs. LA Clippers
Rahim Palmer : While I had futures on last year’s incarnation of the Los Angeles Clippers, I’m not much of a fan of this year’s version. They struggle to score consistently, ranking 26th in the adjusted offensive standings, scoring just 105.4 points per 100 possessions, according to DunksAndThrees.com.
They are a team heavily reliant on vault shooting with 29.7% of their attempts on the edge, 24th among NBA teams. If there’s a team that’s equipped to deal with perimeter shooting, it’s the Boston Celtics with Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart who keep the teams 33.9 percent deep, eighth among NBA teams.
As the Celtics’ offense has slipped on this road trip – they’ve surrendered 114.4 points per 100 possessions over the past two weeks – they’ve faced far better offenses than we’ve seen. of the Clippers this year. The Clippers appear to be a sinking ship, losing four of their last six games and that seems like another good place to make them disappear with my model making this game a PK.
I’ll be backing the Celtics here at +4, even in a back-to-back game at Staples Center.