The Chiefs have just completed a week off – big news if you believe Andy Reid – and have taken four straight wins after an inconsistent start to the season. Denver is also playing its best football at the right time, with wins in three of its last four games, including an impressive win over the LA Chargers last Sunday.
Check out our free NFL picks and predictions for the Broncos at the Chiefs on December 5.
Cotes Broncos vs Chiefs
Odds via the Covers Line, an average made up of the odds of several sports bets.
Kansas City opened up to -9 last Sunday and slowly climbed to -10 until midweek action over the Broncos started to crumble at that point. As it is Sunday morning, Kansas City is as low as -8.5 and as high as -9.5. The total opened up to 49.5 points and declined to 47 points. Use the live odds widget above to track future line moves until kickoff and be sure to check the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Pronostics Broncos vs Chiefs
Predictions made 5/12/2021 at 8:30 a.m.ET.
Click on each prediction to access the full analysis.
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Broncos vs Chiefs Match Information
• Site: GEHA Field au stade Arrowhead, Kansas City, MO
• Date: Sunday 5 December 2021
• Time20 h 20 HE
• TV: NBC
Broncos at Chiefs betting preview
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Bronco : Melvin Gordon III RB (Released), Brett Rypien QB (Released), Essang Bassey CB (Released), Jamar Johnson S (Released), Mike Purcell NT (Released)
Chefs : Shane Buechele QB (Released), Lucas Niang T (Released), Kyle Long T (Released), Rashad Fenton LB (Released)
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
These AFC West rivals have gone 1-4-1 Over / Under in their last six encounters. Check out more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Chiefs.
Picks & Predictions Broncos vs Chiefs
Our predictions are compiled from the spread and total analysis and are indications of where we are looking for this match.
Our best bet is the game we love the most for that game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll into.
If you were leaning towards the Broncos for this rivalry game, I hope you listened to my “Bet Now / Bet Later” advice last Sunday night and waited for this opener to go into double digits before pulling the trigger. of Denver +10.
The Broncos were a popular option among the underdogs in Week 13, with that line reduced to Chiefs -8.5 and our Covers Consensus showing nearly 60% of the picks on the visitors. Bookies are reporting similar splits and are also very heavy on the Broncos’ money, with some stores bringing in up to 91% of the handful in Denver.
Denver is playing a lot better than most of the teams that grab so many points in Week 13 and things always seem to tighten up in the clashes between the divisions. The Broncos are healthier on the offensive line, with Garett Bolles and Bobby Massie returning to tackle, and the o-line showing strong depth in the last few games.
It should help this passing attack move away from shorter screens and give Teddy Bridgewater more pocket time to allow bigger games to develop on the pitch. Denver has underrated weapons in the receiving game, with WR Jerry Jeudy returning from injury last month and his fellow WR Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick as well as TE Noah Fant all capable playmakers.
As for Denver’s defense, they’ll have their hands full with the Chiefs’ loaded depth chart, but will put a lot of speed on the pitch to counter those options with nickel formations using a rich secondary. The Broncos can be run-beaten with this game plan, but don’t allow much passing or moving for big breaks to develop, giving up the seventh-fewest yards after catch and bragging about fewer missed tackles. over the season.
The best of the number is gone, and that line seems to be going down in most of the books you might want to miss out on for the Broncos. Heaven knows you’ll need all the points you can get against the Chiefs at home and with Andy Reid who just finished a week off (19-3 SU, 14-8 ATS). There are still Denver +9.5 spreads if you can shop around.
Prediction: Denver +9.5 (-115)
Covers NFL betting analysis
Over / Under Analysis
The Chiefs turned the storyline of their season around, building a four-game winning streak and allowing just 47 points overall in that span. Kansas City is truly a whole new team – especially in defense – one that has shown all the stability of a baby stag in the first seven weeks of football.
As of Week 8, Kansas City ranks No.3 in the EPA Allowed Per Play and has 180 points in defensive dominance against strong offensive opposition, holding Dallas and Las Vegas to a total of 23 collective points over the past two. matches.
A revitalized defensive line was behind this improvement, with defensive end Frank Clark and Chris Jones putting in reserve a unit under great pressure with just four rushers and allowing linebackers and secondaries to obstruct midfield.
The KC defense has limited their opponents to a 22% third-down success rate in the last three games, while allowing an average of under 17 first tries per game during that span. Denver enters Week 13 without the best RB Melvin Gordon III and a conversion rate of less than 38% over the season. While the Broncos have been better on those deciding third points in recent weeks, losing Gordon hurts when it comes to setting up third and short situations.
As for the Chiefs’ offense, it continues to play below franchise standards. Kansas City has scored 20 points or less in four of its last five games, with an EPA per game of just +0.011 (15th) since Week 7. The recent return of RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (who is expected to play if ill ) adds a new wrinkle to this playbook, adding not only depth of rush, but capable passing catcher in short play.
Like most of Kansas City’s enemies, the Broncos offense will likely play a bit of defense by chewing up time and keeping Patrick Mahomes & Co. on the sidelines and out of sync. Bridgewater is a master at milking possession time with Denver executing the third slowest attack (29.65 seconds per game) and eating up the seventh TOP (31:23 per game) in the league.
Like the point spread, the best of the number went to the Under contributors. But if you take a total swing, Under looks like skinny.
Prediction: Less than 47 (-110)
Edwards-Helaire is expected to prepare for the second game in a row since returning from injury after showing up with a non-COVID illness on the injury report this week.
In Week 11, CEH carried the ball 12 times for 63 yards and had two passes for 13 receiving yards in the win over Dallas. In limited work in 2021, the LSU product only has 10 captures on 12 targets for 74 yards in the air, but will be a valuable weapon below on Sunday night.
The talented Broncos secondary will tie everything deeper together, and Mahomes will have Edwards-Helaire as their top control option. It showed some rust in week 11, but had two weeks of rehearsals to restore that chemistry in this playbook.
Denver allows for 9.5 yards per reception to running backs during the season and, according to Inside Edge, has averaged 57.7 receiving yards to RBs since Week 9, the third worst in this period. Chiefs running backs averaged 56.7 yards in the air over the same span (fifth over).
To take: Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 13.5 yards on reception (-110)