The number of COVID-19 cases in Ontario is expected to remain stable until public health measures are lifted – .

The number of COVID-19 cases in Ontario is expected to remain stable until public health measures are lifted – .

TORONTO – The daily number of COVID-19 cases in Ontario is expected to remain stable over the next month despite an increase in social contact, according to recently released modeling models, but only if public health measures are not lifted.

The new data was released by the province’s Scientific Advisory Table late Friday morning.

In the presentation, officials said COVID-19 cases are on the decline in most public health units across Ontario due to vaccinations and ongoing public health measures.

Modeling suggests that even with “some increase in person-to-person contact,” Ontario could see about 500 new cases of COVID-19 per day in November. This number increases to just over 600 daily infections with a “substantial increase in contacts”.

Officials did not elaborate on what a substantial increase in contacts means, but noted that even under this scenario, occupancy in Ontario’s intensive care units would remain stable with less than 200 patients.

Modeling banks on public health measures – such as masking, vaccination certificates, symptom screening and ventilation – remain in place. Officials warn that in the Nordic countries that have lifted public health measures, there has been an increase in daily infections.

“The lifting of public health measures can lead to a new wave, even with high vaccination coverage,” indicates the model.

Later Friday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford is expected to release the province’s long-term plan to reopen for COVID-19. CTV News Toronto learned Thursday that capacity restrictions for restaurants and gyms in Ontario could be lifted next Monday. Several sources said Ford’s cabinet also discussed when to recall mandatory masking policies in public places.

If Ontarians do not change their social behavior, increase their contact and there are no changes in public health measures, the daily number of COVID-19 cases could drop to around 200.

The last time officials presented COVID-19 modeling data was in early September, when they said the province was facing a “substantial” fourth wave that could see October’s daily case count. reach 9,000 in the worst case.


The scientific table shows that unvaccinated people have a seven times higher risk of contracting symptomatic COVID-19 than someone who received both doses. They also have a 17 times higher risk of being hospitalized and a 23 times higher risk of being admitted to intensive care compared to fully vaccinated people.

Currently, only people aged 12 and older are eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, but with news that Pfizer-BioNTech has asked Health Canada to review doses for children aged five to 11, the offices health officials are beginning to develop their own campaigns to encourage immunization in this demographic group.

The Scientific Table, for its part, suggests that public health units adopt “smart and responsive strategies” to “chart the course for a strong immunization program for children.”

This includes hosting clinics in schools or other places familiar to children, encouraging health care providers to engage with parents and children, providing reminders for second doses, and creating information campaigns within the community.

“Information is not enough and the source matters,” suggests the modeling.

Officials also warn against a “one size fits all” approach and against paying special attention to reaching racialized communities.


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