Bullish projections from Airfinity, a health data analytics company, suggest the two messenger RNA jab producers will control three-quarters of the non-Chinese Covid-19 vaccine market in 2022.
Rivals AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Russian Sputnik V and new entrants such as Novavax make up the rest of the market, which is expected to double in value to $ 124 billion next year.
BioNTech / Pfizer is expected to sell $ 54.5 billion worth of Covid-19 and Moderna vaccines for $ 38.7 billion, according to Airfinity data released by the Financial Times, which is well above consensus estimates from analysts at $ 23.6 billion and $ 20 billion respectively.
“The numbers are unprecedented,” said Rasmus Bech Hansen, CEO of Airfinity.
“We forecast continued high sales levels in 2022 as countries seek continued protection and low- and middle-income countries seek immunization levels similar to those achieved by many high-income countries. “
Other analysts dispute bullish sales forecasts for next year but most agree that Pfizer, in particular, has dominated the Covid-19 vaccine race and will likely consolidate its position in the months to come.
“They were the first to get approval for adults, they first moved to have their booster dose approved and available, they first moved to get the indication for adolescents, and they will get also their first pediatric approval, ”said Geoffrey Porges, analyst. at SVB Leerink.
The investment bank predicts that BioNTech / Pfizer will generate $ 39.5 billion in vaccine sales this year, but experience a rapid drop in sales in 2022 to $ 9 billion due to lower prices, demand less in rich countries and increased competition.
Airfinity forecast shows BioNTech / Pfizer to generate sales of $ 31.3 billion and Moderna of $ 17.6 billion in 2021, which is slightly lower than the company’s forecast of $ 33.5 billion. and $ 20 billion respectively. The health data analytics company said changes in company prices could cause forecasts to deviate.
The list of potential competitors for mRNA jabs is shrinking. German biotech group CureVac last week became the latest company to ditch a vaccine while Maryland-based biotech Novavax has yet to get its jab cleared in the US or Europe.
“The mRNA vaccines have won the vaccine race because they appear to be the most effective,” said David Dowdy, associate professor of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine in Baltimore.
“Since these vaccines are still very effective against serious illnesses, several months from now I think it will be difficult for other vaccines to compete. “
Airfinity predicts that the Covid-19 vaccine market will be supported next year by governments in high- and middle-income countries purchasing booster doses and stockpiling to protect against new variants. From 2022, more than 10 billion booster doses will be ordered, of which only 198 million are for low-income countries, he said.
Following criticism of Pfizer and Moderna for their poor record in delivering mRNA doses to middle- and low-income countries this year, the two companies will increase their vaccine supply in the developing world.
Airfinity data shows that Pfizer is expected to generate 64% of its revenue from high-income companies, while Moderna will generate just over three-quarters of sales from rich countries.
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