The 62 AP voters will give their opinion on Sunday in the immediate wake of the weekend’s results before the CFP selection committee steps in more than 48 hours later with another shot that is inherently crucial to determine the ranking of the playoffs.
In 2019, the last season where the entire FBS landscape started on the same schedule, the top CFP rankings and the Top 25 AP had exactly the same top five teams but none in the same position. The first CFP rankings of the 2018 season were mostly in line with the AP Top 25 except for a dissenting opinion on two teams, but in 2017 we saw very different committee rankings the first time around. .
So it’s important to remember that everything about Sunday’s new ranking, from the mood of voters to the reaction of fans, will be in the context of knowing that a much smaller number of voters will weigh in. with his own opinions on the order. of the best college football teams a few days later. We’ve seen some influence of the Top 25 AP on the CFP ranking in the past, but how much that will influence the first release is an estimate from year to year.
There are plenty of debates already built into the process, starting with whether Cincinnati is the nation’s No.2 team after back-to-back wins over American Athletic Conference opponents in tighter-than-expected matches. Plus, how does an Alabama’s current form stack up against the undefeated profile of an Oklahoma or Michigan state, especially after the Spartans claimed one of the best wins of the season in beating Michigan.
The state of Michigan is expected to be a major player in this week’s ranking, and while there isn’t much real estate to drop from No.8, there is a lot of respect to be earned from the share of voters who will now compare the Spartans to other undefeated teams in the country thanks to the quality victory over the Wolverines.
The bottom of the standings is where we project the most fluidity, as the losses of the ranked teams have opened the door for some darkhorse to finish in the top 25.
Here’s how we think the AP Top 25 will handle week 9:
1. Georgia (Last week – 1): The simplest debate for any college football fan, expert, analyst or CFP committee member is whether Georgia deserves to be No.1 after the 34-7 win over Florida. Hint: it is.
2. Cincinnati (2) : If the final score was as close as it prepared for in the fourth quarter, when the Bearcats led only a nine-point victory for Tulane, then maybe the result will trigger a change to No.2. As it stands, those two fourth-quarter scores and the 31-12 final should leave Cincinnati in the same position, although the voting point margin will be slimmer going into Week 10.
3. Alabama (3) : The Crimson Tide were out in Week 9 and will be back in action next Saturday against LSU.
4. Oklahoma (4) : As Caleb Williams continues to rack up touchdowns – including six against Texas Tech – voters’ willingness to draw a line in the season from pre-Caleb to post-Caleb will increase. But ultimately, Oklahoma’s best quality on his resume is “undefeated.”
5. State of Michigan (8): Kenneth Walker III losing five touchdowns to a top 10 opponent will only fuel the Heisman Trophy argument, but individual awards are far from the main topic around East Lansing now that Michigan State has the appearance of ‘a Big Ten Championship contender after the winning rivalry against Michigan.
6. Ohio State (5): Maybe if the Buckeyes had blown up Penn State, there would be a real debate for No.5. It’s not as much of a “drop” in the standings as a Spartans team that has no losses. and a better victory.
7. Oregon (7) : Colorado’s late touchdowns in a 52-29 Ducks win actually mask how well Oregon played in this game. How voters react to the final score will be an indicator of how much of the game they watched, as they are expected to be skipped by Michigan State, but registering behind Michigan would be a misrepresentation of the shape Oregon showed on Saturday.
8. Michigan (6): The close loss, the road layout and the competitiveness of what has been one of the best games of the Big Ten season will put a floor on Michigan’s downfall following the rivalry’s loss to the Spartans.
9. Forest of Wakes (13): It may be an aggressive projection, but an 8-0 record with all eight wins with at least 35 points scored by the Demon Deacons is going to warrant another surge closer to undefeated teams. The Deacons were double-digit favorites against Duke, but the 45-7 win will grab the attention of voters trying to tie Wake Forest and the one-loss teams in that line of the standings.
10. Notre Dame (11): Another successful week of this new attack from Notre Dame kept the Fighting Irish on the periphery of the college football playoff race. No major movement after the 44-34 win over North Carolina, but a lot of good signs for a good end to the season.
11. Texas A&M (14) : The Aggies were out in Week 9 and will be back in action next week against Auburn at home.
12. Auburn (18): Beating Ole Miss is going to propel one of the biggest moves into the top 25, but those two losses – even against two other currently ranked teams – are going to be a cap on where the Tigers land. The good news for voters is that the stress of comparing Texas A&M to Auburn will only last a week as the two enemies of SEC West face off next Saturday.
13. Oklahoma State (15): The impressive response to last week’s loss to Iowa State was a 17-0 first quarter lead, a 38-0 halftime lead and ultimately a resounding 55-3 win over Kansas. who instilled confidence in the Cowboys as a Big 12 title contender.
14. Baylor (16): Now 7-1 after a win over Texas, Baylor has turned to compete for a Big 12 championship. The Bears are tied for second in the conference standings with Oklahoma State – the only team to beat them this year – and both teams still have the Sooners on the schedule.
15. Be Miss (10): The Rebels have been battling injuries for a few weeks now, and it seems to have caught up with them in the loss to Auburn. No apology will come with the voters, however, moving Lane Kiffin’s side behind the Tigers after the loss.
16. San Diego State (21): The Aztecs are currently in action against the state of Fresno.
17. UTSA (23): The Roadrunners were out in Week 9 and will be back in action next week against UTEP.
18. Coastal Carolina (24): A home date against Troy paved the way for a decisive victory, but the ensuing 35-28 result could shake the confidence of the Chanticleers. Still, with as many losses as we’ve seen in the top 25 this week, a win is good enough to stay ranked.
19. BYU (25): The Cougars are currently in action against Virginia.
20. Penn State (20) : There won’t be any progression for Penn State after the loss to Ohio State, but competitiveness against a top team will make voters treat the Nittany Lions more favorably than most three-game losing teams that are fighting. for places in the 20s. The win over Auburn holds the most weight, especially as the Tigers’ stock grows after the win over Ole Miss.
21. Arkansas (RN) : The Razorbacks were out in Week 9. Typically, we don’t see inactive teams making their way into the top 25. However, with so much upheaval in the standings, it’s likely that last week’s position will allow to Sam Pittman’s group to come. up. Arkansas were the first team to break out of the top 25 last week, registering just a few voting points behind No.25 BYU in the poll.
22. Louisiana (NR): Now 7-1, Louisiana will be favored in all remaining games of the regular season, with the most difficult game remaining being a non-conference showdown with Liberty on November 20. A 10-2 or 11-1 record heading into the Sun Belt Championship is a real possibility as Billy Napier attempts to complete his third straight double-digit winning season with the Ragin ‘Cajuns.
23. State of Appalachia (NR): Beating Coastal Carolina put the Mountaineers on a handful of ballots last week, and I think the 50-burger on the scoreboard (a 59-28 win over ULM) might get enough attention that App State is considered one of the top two-game teams. in the countryside.
24. Houston (NR): The Cougars didn’t have a single voting point last week, but I expect Dana Holgorsen’s squad to be in the top 25 after handing SMU their first loss of the season.
25. High school (19): This victory over TCU doesn’t carry as much weight, but I think Saturday night’s loss to Houston will do more for the Cougars than the Mustangs, given the teams had a combined 13-1 record going into the game.
Abandon projeté : Iowa (9), Kentucky (12), Pittsburgh (17), Iowa State (22)