As cases drop for fourth day in a row, health editor Emily Morgan explains why some experts believe this winter might not be as difficult as feared
Covid-19 cases could drop over the next month without the government needing to implement Plan B measurements, according to scientific projections.
Boris Johnson again ruled out a switch to the government’s emergency plan and instead says Covid booster jabs will get the country through the winter months – despite urgent calls for restrictions amid spiraling coronavirus cases.
However, it is understood that the modeling, which has reportedly been seen by the government, shows that cases may peak soon before starting to decline again in a few weeks, suggesting that ministers will not need to resort to Plan B.
The government has been made aware of several unpublished scientific projections that show Covid cases could drop to around 5,000 a day before Xmas, according to the Daily Telegraph.
Sunday, UK has nearly 40,000 positive Covid cases, during the last Thursday saw more than 50,000 cases reported in one day for the first time since July.
John Edmunds, a member of Sage and professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told the newspaper: “When we were doing the job about two weeks ago, the Secretary of Health made it clear that the government had failed. no plans to introduce Plan B in the near future.
“Our model predicted that cases would start to decline at some point in the fall.
“However, the model also suggests that cases could start to rise again in the spring, due to a combination of waning immunity and increased contact. “
The government’s plan B includes working from home, the mandatory use of face masks and the use of vaccine passports in high-risk locations and mass gatherings.
Mr Johnson and his ministers are instead focusing on accelerating the NHS booster vaccination program, with a two more million to be invited to receive theirs this week.
But health officials and other scientists have warned that vaccinations alone would not be enough to bring current infection rates under control and urged the government to implement more stringent measures.
Professor Peter Openshaw of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) told BBC Radio 4’s Today program: ‘What we are facing right now is unacceptable, we have about one in 55 people infected. , which is a surprisingly high rate compared to most other Western European countries.
“This has to do with the lack of clear messages about the sensible steps we should all take to reduce the spread of infection. “
He and British Medical Association board chairman Dr Chaand Nagpaul said vaccine passports and other measures are standard in other European countries.
Dr Nagpaul called the government “willfully negligent” to take no further action to reduce the spread of the virus after the health secretary admitted cases could reach 100,000 per day.
Downing Street has insisted that there is still reserve capacity in the NHS and that Plan B will only be activated if it comes under “significant pressure”.