Where in Canada could they spoil the Conservatives? – .

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Where in Canada could they spoil the Conservatives? – .


TORONTO – This election sparked a level of passion – and sometimes anger – that is not typically seen in Canada. The Prime Minister and some Liberal candidates in particular have been the target of protests and attacks during this campaign.

Part of the protest activity was attributed to supporters of the People’s Party of Canada (PPC). In the midst of all of this, the PPC saw its popularity rise as it apparently became a channel for expressing frustration with COVID-19 restrictions and vaccination mandates.

The PPC won 1.6% of the votes cast in 2019 and did not elect any MPs. Many current polls place them in fourth place, ahead of the Bloc Québécois and the Greens.

Nanos data from September 16 projects 6.7% support, more than four times what they received in the last election. Even with the increase in support, seat projections mean that the PPC doesn’t win more than one or two seats – and maybe none.

There were two avenues for reflection on how the PPC might affect the results of major parties even if they do not send representatives to Ottawa. The first line of thought is that they won’t make much of a difference. At the start of the campaign, this was the common opinion. In fact, I personally expressed this in an interview with CTVNews.ca on August 17, as part of a leader profile of PPC leader Maxime Bernier.

The segments of voters where the PPC draws its support tend to favor the Tories so overwhelmingly that a small share of the votes going to the PPC will not change the race results, because the ridings where they elected Tory MPs well by wide margins.

The second line of thinking, which prevails now that their support has grown, is that they could sidetrack enough Conservative voters that their push could split the right and give the Liberals, NDP or Bloc victories in close races. .

Where exactly could the PPC spoil the Conservatives? Our table below breaks it down.

Given the highly visible connection of PCP supporters to the vaccine protests, we have speculated that vaccine refusals are likely to be the source of much of the PCP surge. We started by identifying the constituencies that should have the highest proportion of people refusing a COVID-19 vaccine.

This comes from Environics Analytics’ VaccineInsights database which took respondents from a Caddle survey and creates estimates for every zip code in the country around vaccination intentions. We do this by combining data from the Caddle survey with demographic data and using geodemographic modeling techniques to project the results into the field.

We have found that, on average, 7% of Canadians say they will not get the vaccine. But this number varies a little according to the constituencies: it is 3% at the bottom of the scale, reaching up to 15%. For this analysis, we have identified constituencies:

· With a refusal of the vaccine projected at 9% or more;

Where the 2019 race was won by

Where the Conservatives won the seat or took second place

Our “scrutinized” result is the list of ridings below where the rise of the PPC could actually help left-wing parties hang on or even push Conservative ridings away. These ridings are located in smaller communities and rural areas of Atlantic Canada and Quebec, with a few ridings each in Ontario and British Columbia.

Note that two of these constituencies have vacancies for PPC candidates, according to the PPC website, and some did not have PPC candidates in 2019 (indicated by zero vote share in the table).

This list of constituencies corresponds to the segmentation of voters from Environics Analytics which identified segments such as Aging Heartland, Older Rustic and Francophones aux Villages as having relatively large voting shares for the PPC.

These segments tend to have rural and older voters with a high turnout. However, the segment with the largest share of PPC looks quite different. It’s called Modest Metros, which is a younger, lower-income segment that can be found in cities across the country.

This segment had the second lowest turnout of the 15 voter segments, which raises a third reflection on the impact of the PPC: the party could also benefit from the support of those who did not vote in 2019. If so is the case, the PPC might not play the spoiler role for conservatives to the same degree – if those supporters vote this time around.

Take it away

When the PPC gets votes from the Conservatives, it could actually help consolidate the Liberal or NDP seats, or return the Conservative seats to one of those parties, if the races are close. The majority of these seats are in Atlantic Canada. We should also monitor voter turnout in seats and voter segments where the PPC is relatively successful in validating whether the PPC has been successful in increasing voter turnout.

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