the race remains very close between Liberals and Conservatives on the eve of the 44th federal election – .

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the race remains very close between Liberals and Conservatives on the eve of the 44th federal election – .


TORONTO – On the eve of Canada’s 44th Federal Election, the race between Liberals and Conservatives remains very tight, as Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau retains his slight advantage over Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole when it comes to Prime Minister prefer.

In a one-day sample of 800 Canadians taken by Nanos Research for CTV News and The Globe and Mail, the Liberals are at 32.4 percent, while the Conservatives follow closely behind at 31.2 percent.

The NDP remains in third place with 17.5 percent, while the Bloc Québécois sits at 7.5 percent.

The People’s Party of Canada (PPC) is in fifth place with 6.6 percent and the Green Party is in sixth place with 4.5 percent support.

Of those polled, 8.2 percent are still undecided.

“It sounds a lot like 2019,” Nik Nanos, founder and chief data scientist at Nanos Research, said earlier Sunday during CTV’s question period. The 2019 election also saw a stalemate between the two parties in the national ballot. But the Liberals, because of the efficiency of the votes, were able to win a minority government because they won more seats in the House of Commons.

Nanos said what we should be watching Monday night, again, is how the national ballot turns into seats.

REGIONAL RACES

Nanos said he is watching “some very exciting and interesting regional races” in Atlantic Canada, where there are a number of seats too close to be called with Tory candidates posing a threat to the Liberals. There are only 32 seats in Atlantic Canada, but with such a close election, a few seats could prove to be decisive.

In the voice-rich Quebec, where there are 72 seats, Nanos said there were close races around the island of Montreal between the Bloc Québécois and the Liberals, “this could have a significant impact on the appearance of a minority government, ”he told CTV. New.

In Ontario, meanwhile, Nanos said O’Toole had his eyes fixed on the battlefield rich in 905 votes, with its roughly 3.4 million people and more than 30 ridings up for grabs. “If (O’Toole) is going to do this election well, it has to start at 905,” Nanos said.

And if we jump in BC, there are nail-biting three-way races, like in 2019.

“Who knows what will happen (in British Columbia), but the NDP is doing well,” Nanos said.

FAVORITE PM

Meanwhile, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau retained the lead as the preferred prime minister, with 31.1% of respondents choosing him first when asked to rank their top two preferences for the prime minister. Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole had 27.5 percent support while NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh remained in third place, with 19.8 percent.

Nano Research conducted all the interviews for this survey on Sunday and released them Sunday night at 10 p.m. ET.

METHODOLOGY

A national dual-base (land + cell) random telephone survey is conducted by Nanos Research every evening throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening, a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed (800 on September 19). Daily follow-up figures are based on a three-day rolling sample of 1,600 interviews. To update the tracking, a new maintenance day is added and the oldest day is deleted. The margin of error for a survey of 1,600 respondents is ± 2.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The September 19 follow-up is a one-day stand-alone random sample of 800 Canadians. The margin error is ± 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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