“The situation we find ourselves in now is of course in a very different position from where we were last year – of course we have the vaccines, of which we have very high levels of protection in the population, but we have a much higher prevalence, a lot more cases in the population, and a lot more people hospitalized than we did around this time last year.
“So it’s really how these two balance each other as fall approaches that will really dictate the pace at which any of these measures might be introduced. “
He added: “At the moment when there is a concern, it is really important that all measures are introduced quickly so that if this is the case, we catch this increase in infections as it occurs and all the measures that are introduced, hopefully, do not need to be there that long in total. “
“I don’t think at all there’s a suggestion that we’re in a situation where we need to impose lockdown just that if we start seeing trends where hospital admissions start to increase in worryingly high ways,” so it is better to introduce certain measures earlier so that we do not end up in a situation that we were in last year. “
Regarding modeling, he added: “When we try to advise the government on what it might expect to see in the winter, it is really important to present the best and worst scenarios so that the government can prepare for it. consequence, but it’s also important to remember that when these worst-case scenarios are reported, they are indeed worst-case scenarios and they are not necessarily an expectation.