But hours before election day, a new poll reveals that the Liberals and Conservatives are at an impasse, the latter advancing only 1% in the national popular vote.
An Ipsos poll of 2,359 Canadians conducted exclusively for Global News showed that the Conservatives were on track to garner 32% of the vote, while the Liberals lost one point in the polls – they are expected to receive 31% of the vote.
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Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Affairs, told Global News that 1% would mean a statistical link for the two parties and another minority government for the Liberals, reminiscent of the 2019 election results.
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“However, this time around, the Conservatives are earning less in the Prairies and are helped by the NDP, which takes votes away from the Liberals in Ontario,” the Ipsos poll indicates.
“That, combined with a base that seems excited to vote for O’Toole and his party, could make a very long night on Monday as the nation awaits the results of tight races in British Columbia. “
Meanwhile, the New Democrats got 21 percent in the poll, while the Bloc Québécois got seven percent and the Green Party three percent. But nearly 20 percent of Canadians polled said they had quit so as not to vote this year and declined to share their choice for Canada’s next prime minister, or said they were undecided.
There appear to be generational and gender divisions when it comes to party support.
Support for the Liberals was highest among women at 33 percent, while men tended to favor Tories at 37 percent. Canadians aged 55 and over said they were more likely to favor the Conservatives, while respondents aged 35 to 54 said they were more likely to support the Liberals. Canadians between the ages of 18 and 34 said they were most likely to support the NDP.
There is also a close race between the provinces.
In Ontario, the Liberals are just four points ahead of the Conservatives at 33 percent. Respondents in British Columbia sided with the Conservatives, garnering 34 percent of the province’s vote against 26 percent for the Liberals. Meanwhile, in Quebec, the Liberals were statistically tied with the Bloc Québécois.
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Seeking re-election Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau started this year’s campaign with a 14-point lead over Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole. But one day into the election campaign, the poll found that the lead had shrunk considerably. Today, just 28% of Canadians polled said Trudeau would make the best prime minister, while 27% said O’Toole would make the best leader.
NDP Jagmeet Singh has seen a surprising rise, coming in close to third with 23% of respondents saying he would be “best placed” to lead the country.
But for Bricker, the “energy” of the vote – or how many Canadians said they were determined to go to the polls – was the real trigger for this year’s election.
Seventy-one percent of Canadian respondents said they were “completely certain” they would vote in this year’s federal election – half of them said they planned to vote in person. Meanwhile, 36 percent said they participated in the advance polls and eight percent said they mailed their ballots.
According to the poll, those planning to vote for the People’s Party of Canada and the Conservative Party were the most likely to vote on election day, at 85% and 82%, respectively.
Respondents who said they supported the Liberal, NDP and Green parties said they were the least likely to show up to vote.
“Right from the start of this campaign, the Liberals were the most upset that the government called an election,” Bricker said, adding that a majority of Liberal voters agreed that a pandemic was not the right time for it. organize elections.
“As a result, there is less commitment to the Liberal Party, I would say, this time around than the last time.”
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In addition to being more likely to vote, Bricker said Conservative voters were also more certain of their choice than Liberal voters and were also more likely to “regret not voting” than Liberals.
Bricker said this suggests there could be a “surprise” on election day.
“It may be that the Conservatives are running at a higher level than the Liberals could run,” he said.
These are some of the conclusions of an Ipsos poll carried out between September 15 and 18 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n = 2,359 eligible voters in Canada aged 18 and over was interviewed. A sample of n = 1,389 was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources, and respondents receive a nominal incentive for their participation. A sample of n = 970 Canadians aged 18 and over were interviewed by live telephone interviewers over landlines and cell phones, using random dialing. Quotas and weighting were used to balance demographics to ensure that the sample composition reflects that of the adult population according to census data and to provide results intended to approximate the universe of sample. The precision of Ipsos surveys that include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to ± 2.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, if all Canadians had been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population.