Unpredictable consequences of the Afghan crisis – .

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Unpredictable consequences of the Afghan crisis – .


The US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the rapid advance of the Taliban is not necessarily a simple cause and effect. The United States had very few troops in Afghanistan and it didn’t fight much for years. The Taliban appear to have planned a massive offensive, unlike anything seen in the past, presumably with foreign intelligence and other backers, after sending delegations to Russia, China, Iran, Qatar and the United States. Pakistan.

This means that what happens has unintended consequences. There are a lot of unanswered questions. Le New York Times asserts that “few people will gang up on the United States to shut down a failed business for good.” , according to the article. What is more confusing is that other NATO members, including European countries, have also withdrawn from Afghanistan and yet, oddly enough, this does not erode confidence as to whether anyone one can count on NATO or European countries. being that no one was relying on NATO or the European states anyway, so it was America’s war to lose.

There are a lot of arguments circulating now as to whether it should be this way in Afghanistan. An article on The Dispatch by Paul Miller argues it didn’t have to end like this. The United States could have continued to train the Afghan army until it was ready to fight. They could have given Kabul more weight in discussions with the Taliban.

It’s hard to know. Many countries seem to be rushing to feast on failure. Turkey wants to have talks with the Taliban and manage the airport. Iran, together with China, sees a silver lining in Afghanistan. As Pakistan, Russia, Iran, China and Turkey prepare to rush, European countries are evacuating embassy staff.

The question that remains is not to assign the blame or even understand why the Afghan army seems to have disintegrated, if such an army even existed in the first place. The question is, what may be the unforeseeable or unforeseen consequences. The long-term consequence could be that the war in Afghanistan symbolizes a global estrangement from American power. The United States became a world hegemony as a result of World War II and the Cold War and this led to the construction of an American world order based on American allies and partners from South Korea to Israel, from NATO to US bases that were once in place like Afghanistan. As the United States pulls out, there are calls for more American withdrawals, such as from Iraq and Syria. The consequences are not just the immediate power vacuum or the empowerment of American adversaries, and not just a blow to the reputation of the United States.

Afghan security forces monitor a checkpoint in Guzara district, Herat province, Afghanistan, July 9, 2021. (JALIL AHMAD / REUTERS)

The fact that in each case, when there is a pullout, the American footprint is filled by Russia, Iran, Turkey or other adversaries of the United States is the real challenge for Washington. Turkey, for example, is a member of NATO but buys the S-400 from Russia and works with Iran, Russia, Pakistan and China. Pakistan, another country that is ostensibly a partner of the United States, has fueled three generations of anti-American haters, ranging from helping the Taliban to welcoming bin Laden, or fueling extremism, the laws of the United States. far right on blasphemy and religious fascism. The United States, as it became a global superpower, has worked with many countries that have come to hate and detest the United States, and have fed local groups that hate the United States. They have often taken aid and arms from the United States while also sponsoring organizations that support terrorism against the West and tend to ethnically cleanse minorities, throw acid in women’s faces and deprive people of their rights.

These contradictions in American policy, sending forces to Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, but turning the other cheek to the Ankara aggression, with Pakistan welcoming the Taliban or Iran killing American forces in Iraq, have made these missions complex. The lesson everyone has learned is that countries can fight the United States without having real consequences. China and Russia waited backstage, mopping up areas where the United States once had influence, from Africa to Asia.

The rise of the Taliban, again, may be a local issue and the Taliban may no longer welcome global jihadist movements like Al Qaeda. This is because the conditions that gave birth to Al Qaeda and the way it raised funds and disseminated information have changed. Al Qaeda had supporters across Europe and the Middle East. Today, countries that once quietly supported Al Qaeda have turned against these extremists. This means that Afghanistan cannot become a hub for terrorism. The real consequence can be more complex. Afghanistan might simply become host to the growing storm of a post-American world order. Regional groupings like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and others will not include the United States. It is exactly like Russia, Iran and Turkey have excluded the United States from talks on Syria. China and Russia are rushing to create international forums where the United States is not present. US President Joe Biden says “America is back” and wants to rebuild US infrastructure and the US Navy to cope with a rising China. But it’s unclear whether the United States has dragged its feet in the war on terror, wasting money in places like Afghanistan, without seeing the elephant in the room.

Perhaps these are the unintended consequences of Afghanistan. Insurgent and proxy groups backed by Iran, Turkey or others can increase global chaos in some places and quietly eat away at liberal international structures. This is why Iran feels free to attack ships off the coast of Oman. These incidents are symbolic and may be linked to the rise of the Taliban again in Afghanistan.

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