Neil Ferguson warns UK could see 100,000 Covid cases per day by October as contact rates rise | United Kingdom

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Neil Ferguson warns UK could see 100,000 Covid cases per day by October as contact rates rise | United Kingdom


Epidemiologist Professor Neil Ferguson has argued that the UK may not be out of the woods yet on the coronavirus. Speaking on the Today show, he admitted it was possible the UK could reach its 100,000 daily Covid cases in October. He admitted that it remains difficult to make precise predictions, but explained in more detail how the UK might reach this point.

He said that across the UK contact rates are around 50% of the normal level.
He went on to note that as we move forward into September, with children returning to school and adults returning to the office, that contact rate will increase.

That would then increase the 30,000 daily covid rates the UK is already getting, a figure it says has leveled off.

When asked if it would still be possible for the UK to reach 100,000 new cases of Covid a day later, Professor Ferguson said: ‘What we have seen is this rapid increase early July, then a rapid decline.

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“But the number of cases has practically plateaued at the moment and is really quite high, at around 30,000 cases per day.
“It’s a slightly sobering situation as we approach September as our contact rates are about half our normal level and during the school holidays the kids don’t have as much contact.

“We’ll reopen the schools, people will go back to the office, so we still have the potential for a pretty big wave of infections in September and October. “

Professor Ferguson again admitted how difficult it is to predict the rest of the year.

He added that vaccines would remain an important tool in the fight against the pandemic.

He went on to say, “It is possible that we will reach 100,000 cases, but it is very difficult to make those predictions at the moment.

“What we can be confident of is that vaccinations protect people against the most serious disease.

“So it’s very unlikely that we will see death levels comparable to what we saw in January. “

“The real question, more important than the number of cases, is what this spike is doing to NHS demand and hospital admissions.

“In the worst case scenario, we could probably not hit January levels, but still levels over 1,000 entries per day.

“It puts stress on the health care system and we already have a huge backlog. “

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