Ordonez adds, “I think this movement can impact the economy through consumer behavior, because of the news, because of what you see, because of what you feel, behavior can change. In our forecast, we expect consumers to spend most of their accumulated savings over the next three to four months.
“If their confidence starts to wane, because they have an anti-vax sentiment and prefer to wait to spend the savings, it can actually have a real impact and change the profile of the recovery. It could be more gradual with lower demand and more bankruptcies. “
David Page, head of research at Axa Investment Management, notes the increase of some 6 million jabs since the announcement of the health pass and added that Macron faced a potential compromise in his candidacy for re-election: ” The policy introduced now can create tensions. in France over the next few months. However, if that leads to a situation where France has more vaccinations and you get a stronger economic recovery in the second quarter of next year, the election results are much more likely to be market-friendly. “
That said, after a low-turnout regional election in June where the two main parties failed to advance, Macron has a 55-45% advantage in the polls – too small for comfort. Experts say a key difference between the current turmoil and the yellow vests at the time, it was that it was easier for the opponents to support provincial France against a too powerful center, than to use the anti-vax vote at the risk of losing support elsewhere.
The biggest risk for Macron, according to Bristielle, is that the health pass the protests turn into “a debate on democracy rather than health”.
For a Jupiterian president not known for his humility, uncomfortable moments are looming in the countdown to Election Day.