Daily British Columbia Cases ‘Soon To Surpass All-Time Highs’, Modeling Group Reports – .

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Daily British Columbia Cases ‘Soon To Surpass All-Time Highs’, Modeling Group Predicts – .


VANCOUVER – The number of COVID-19 cases will soon exceed record levels in British Columbia if no action is taken by health authorities, warns a group of local scientists and researchers.

The BC COVID-19 Modeling Group released new data on Wednesday, calling for more public health measures to help curb the spread of the coronavirus. The report shows that unvaccinated people could propel the number of COVID-19 cases to unprecedented levels, spread the virus to children who cannot be immunized and overwhelm the healthcare system within months.

The group says its modeling is not a prediction, but an early warning of how the Delta variant could change the pandemic in our province.

“The current vaccine immunity that we have in our population is clearly insufficient,” said Dean Karlen, co-author of the report and professor of physics at the University of Victoria.

The modeling group is made up of data analysts and researchers from the universities of British Columbia and its research is conducted separately from the provincial government modeling. The last time the BC Ministry of Health released its own modeling data was on June 28.

“In order to avoid a health care crisis, we need to take action,” Karlen added. “We need to both reduce transmission but also expand immunization coverage. ”

In recent weeks, British Columbia has seen a steady increase in the number of cases. The modeling group says infections have recently doubled about every nine days, or increased about eight percent every day. Their research shows growth in all health authorities.

According to the group’s report, if there is no change to the restrictions and the province does not achieve a 90% vaccination rate in the coming months, the number of cases could skyrocket beyond that. of what British Columbia has already seen. In fact, one projection indicates that if no action is taken and the rise in infections continues, Delta cases could reach 11,000 per day in October.

These cases will only decrease when more of the population has herd immunity to the disease, according to the modelers.

“We see that we have this kind of conclusion from the epidemic, but it is a dramatic conclusion,” Dr Eric Cytrynbaum said in a data presentation.

The group warns that hospitals and intensive care will be overwhelmed, including with extra beds. The researchers also say that while hospitalizations have so far remained relatively low in Wave 4, there is a lag in those numbers compared to the number of cases.

“When someone gets sick, it can take a little while before they show up to the hospital. So there is a lag, and then another lag before he ends up in the intensive care unit, ”Cytrynbaum said.

However, the modeling group expects health officials in British Columbia to step up public health measures before that happens.

IMPACT ON CHILDREN

The report notes that children are likely to be more affected during this wave, especially because they are not vaccinated. The modeling report shows that children under 10 make up nine percent of British Columbia’s population, but 36 percent of the unvaccinated population.

“What we’re looking at is a wave of September, October and November that will include these unvaccinated children and include a fairly large number of cases in this age cohort,” Cytrynbaum said.

The modeling group says that with measurements mostly removed in schools and with the higher transmissibility of the Delta variant, exposures in schools are likely to be higher this coming school year.

To avoid these projections, the group is calling for both action to reduce transmission and an aggressive expansion of British Columbia’s immunization program.

The head of the Vancouver Infectious Diseases Center said – with more testing than ever before – that includes protecting children who cannot get vaccinated.

“The first step for this is to surround them with vaccinated people,” said Dr. Brian Conway. “You can’t get COVID from someone who doesn’t have it,” Dr. Brian Conway said.

Conway suggests that all school staff who can be vaccinated should be.

The British Columbia Minister of Health was not available for an interview.

The Green Party wants a return to an indoor mask mandate and that the province demand that all government employees in health, education and the public be fully immunized.

For the leader of the Greens Sonia Fursteanau, this is a responsibility towards the unvaccinated.

“You have a responsibility to protect other people around you, especially if you are working with vulnerable or unvaccinated people,” she told CTV News Vancouver.

Dr Conway added that he sees five reasons people don’t get vaccinated: They haven’t looked at it, they don’t think it’s safe, they don’t think it’s effective, they don’t think they need it or they don’t want it. He suggests that a targeted approach is needed.

“Those who haven’t, you have to go door to door and vaccinate them,” he said. “We should do it. ”

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