Daily British Columbia Cases ‘Soon To Surpass All-Time Highs’, Modeling Group Predicts – .

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Daily British Columbia Cases ‘Soon To Surpass All-Time Highs’, Modeling Group Predicts – .


VANCOUVER – The number of COVID-19 cases will soon exceed record levels in British Columbia if no action is taken by health authorities, warns a group of local scientists and researchers.

The BC COVID-19 Modeling Group released new data on Wednesday, calling for more public health measures to help curb the spread of the coronavirus.

The modeling group is made up of data analysts and researchers from the universities of British Columbia and its research is conducted separately from the provincial government modeling. The last time the BC Ministry of Health released its own modeling data was on June 28.

In recent weeks, British Columbia has seen a steady increase in the number of cases. The modeling group says infections have recently doubled about every nine days, or increased about eight percent every day. Their research shows growth in all health authorities.

According to the group’s report, if there is no change to the restrictions and the province does not achieve a 90% vaccination rate in the coming months, the number of cases could skyrocket beyond that. of what British Columbia has already seen. In fact, one projection indicates that if no action is taken and the rise in infections continues, Delta cases could reach 11,000 per day in October.

These cases will only decrease when more of the population has herd immunity to the disease, according to the modelers.

“We see that we have this kind of conclusion from the epidemic, but it is a dramatic conclusion,” Dr Eric Cytrynbaum said in a data presentation.

The group warns that hospitals and intensive care will be overwhelmed, including with extra beds. The researchers also say that while hospitalizations have so far remained relatively low in Wave 4, there is a lag in those numbers compared to the number of cases.

“When someone gets sick, it can take a little while before they show up to the hospital. So there is a lag, and then another lag before he ends up in the intensive care unit, ”Cytrynbaum said.

However, the modeling group expects health officials in British Columbia to step up public health measures before that happens.

IMPACT ON CHILDREN

The report notes that children are likely to be more affected during this wave, especially because they are not vaccinated. The modeling report shows that children under 10 make up nine percent of British Columbia’s population, but 36 percent of the unvaccinated population.

“What we’re looking at is a wave of September, October and November that will include these unvaccinated children and include a fairly large number of cases in this age cohort,” Cytrynbaum said.

The modeling group says that with measurements mostly removed in schools and with the higher transmissibility of the Delta variant, exposures in schools are likely to be higher this coming school year.

To avoid these projections, the group is calling for both action to reduce transmission and an aggressive expansion of British Columbia’s immunization program.

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