Unvaccinated Canadians Point Us To Fourth ‘Delta Driven’ Wave, Tam Says – .

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Unvaccinated Canadians Point Us To Fourth ‘Delta Driven’ Wave, Tam Says – .


OTTAWA – Canada is seeing an increase in new cases of COVID-19, with thousands more infections expected if contacts are not contained, warns new national modeling released on Friday.

The new picture of Canada’s pandemic trajectory shows the serious threat posed by the highly contagious variant of the Delta, and the risk that those who remain unvaccinated pose for the country of being plunged into a fourth wave of the disease.

“The updated longer-term forecast shows how the epidemic trajectory may evolve until early September. This suggests that we are at the start of the fourth wave driven by Delta, but the trajectory will depend on the continued increase in full immunization coverage, as well as the timing, pace and extent of the reopening, ”said Dr. Theresa Tam, Chief Public Health Officer. .

After weeks of sustained declines in the number of new cases, the Public Health Agency of Canada warns that while community-wide contact rates are increasing too rapidly with ongoing reopening efforts, forecasts long. term indicate that Canada may experience a “stronger resurgence” of the virus.

Ultimately, given Delta’s spread, hospital capacity could be exceeded this fall or winter if more people do not get vaccinated, the modeling indicates.

The predominance of the Delta variant “underscores the need for high vaccine coverage and continued caution as restrictions are relaxed,” the modeling indicates.

The new data predicts that in the short term, the number of cases will continue to rise, meaning the country could see between 2,700 and 11,800 new cases over the next week. As of noon as of Friday, 1,429,937 cases have been reported nationwide, and by August 8 the number could rise from 1,432,555 to 1,441,610 cases.

A sign that the number of cases in Canada is on an upward trajectory: the national “Rt” or effective reproduction number, recently started to exceed one around mid-July, which means there are “early signs” epidemic growth ”in some areas. This comes after the “Rt” has been off a growth pattern since April.

“If the ‘Rt’ remains consistently above one for several weeks, with the highly contagious Delta variant prevailing, we might expect a return to rapid epidemic growth, especially as measures that slow the spread are relaxed, ”Tam said.

The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) said it quintupled the proportion of Delta cases in June, recalling that Delta cases have an increased risk of hospitalization and have reduced the vaccine’s effectiveness against symptomatic infection.

The majority of Delta cases in Canada involve unvaccinated or partially vaccinated people, PHAC said.

89.7 PERCENT OF UNVACCINATED CASES

As a sign that vaccines are working, modeling does not predict that the rate of new deaths will increase with the rise in new cases.

Modeling shows that regionally, hospitalization rates remain low, with less than one percent of reported cases and less than one percent of hospitalized cases occurring in fully vaccinated people.

The flip side of this statistic is that 89.7% of all cases occur in eligible but unvaccinated people, and 84.9% of hospitalized cases are unvaccinated people. Another 5.3% of cases concern those who are not yet eligible for vaccines, and 4.6% of infections concern those who are partially vaccinated.

Tam said it is also mainly those who are not vaccinated who die after contracting COVID-19.

She is now pushing to see a marked increase in vaccination rates in younger populations, warning that if they do not increase over the next few months, Canada could face a “serious resurgence” this fall or winter. .

Generally speaking, the vaccination rate decreases in each younger demographic group. In the early stages of deployment, older generations were often given priority for vaccination before younger ones.

As of last week, 89 percent of people aged 70 or older have been fully immunized, while only 37 percent of those aged 12 to 17 have received both doses, 46 percent of those aged 18 to 29 years old are fully vaccinated and 54 percent of people aged 30 to 39 have received both doses.

The data also shows which provinces have the lowest percentages of unvaccinated people: Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and Alberta, while the Yukon and the Northwest Territories continue to dominate at nationwide.

More soon…

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