Christopher Murray, directeur de l'IHME, sur lequel la Maison Blanche s'appuie pour les données COVID, dit que nous ne devrions pas encore laisser tomber nos masques, surtout à l'intérieur. </p><div> <ul class="summary-list"><li>Les personnes vaccinées sont bien protégées contre les maladies graves et la mort, même avec la flambée de la variante Delta.</li>
United States celebrates strong COVID-19 vaccine coverage.
Foreigners stand side-by-side in bars, fans sing at crowded indoor concerts and travelers are flying in unseen numbers before the lockdowns began in 2020.
“While the virus has not been defeated, we know this: It no longer controls our lives,” President Biden said on July 4, as hospitalizations, cases and deaths tended to decline. “America is reconstituting itself. “
Yet a quiet new wave of serious COVID-19 infections is brewing, fueled by the more transmissible Delta variant.
“We actually have states where hospitalizations are increasing more than cases,” Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told Insider, noting that CDC data could mask the true spread of the virus.
“The CDC directive is not to test the vaccinated [unless they’re symptomatic], so we’re probably missing a bunch of transmissions from vaccinated individuals. “
Delta is spreading rapidly in the United States
State-level data mining reveals how quickly Delta has spread.
“We have 14 states where transmission has started to return,” said Murray, who is the senior modeler at IHME, which the White House has relied on for disease projections throughout the pandemic.
This is “because of the Delta variant and because everyone has stopped wearing a mask and just stopped most of the precautions,” he added.
Scripps disease modellers estimate that Delta could now be responsible for around 60% of COVID-19 cases in the United States.
Vaccines prevent serious illness
COVID-19 vaccines do not prevent all infections. They are designed to better defend your body against the virus. The vaccines licensed in the United States do this very well – even against Delta.
Some people who are vaccinated develop a mild illness resembling a cold, with headaches and a runny nose. Others might be infected but never know it, becoming silent spreaders.
Delta is wreaking much greater havoc among the unvaccinated. Hospitalizations tend to increase in several US states, including Missouri, Arkansas, Utah and Mississippi, according to IHME data. These are some of the same places where vaccination rates are lagging behind.
How Delta can move through a semi-vaccinated population
Tim Spector, an epidemiologist at King’s College London, previously told Insider that while there is no evidence that Delta is more lethal, it is more infectious and “because of that extra stickiness it will continue to break through. the vaccines group ”.
More than half of Scotland is fully vaccinated and 71% of Scots have received at least one dose of a vaccine. Yet the country is suffering its worst wave of infections to date.
“You can’t explain the explosive epidemic in Scotland, in a fairly heavily vaccinated population, if it doesn’t play a role in transmission,” Murray said of those vaccinated.
Delta against our vaccines
A recent real-world study in the UK suggests that Pfizer’s vaccine is around 88% effective against symptomatic COVID-19 with Delta – significantly lower than the 95% effectiveness against COVID-19 first detected time.
Moderna and Johnson & Johnson may also be less effective at preventing symptomatic Delta infections, according to early lab studies from these companies.
What is clear is that all three vaccines licensed in the United States maintain strong protection against serious illness and death, even with the Delta variant.
While natural immunity can help (and federal estimates suggest more than a third of Americans have had COVID-19), Russia is an example of how past infections cannot stop the spread of Delta.
Murray says the IHME is investigating outbreaks of COVID-19 in US groups “that are over 90% vaccinated.”
“This could only happen if they are passed on to each other,” he said. “There is no doubt in my mind. “
This is just one of the reasons why many infectious disease experts still wear face masks indoors.
“In our models, we see that even modest use of the mask combined with vaccination can really dampen even the Delta variant,” Murray said.