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The spread of the more transmissible delta variant has pushed daily Covid cases to record highs in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand in recent weeks. This has led to tighter restrictions in Indonesia and Thailand, and an extension of restrictions in Malaysia, Goldman economists wrote in a note on Thursday.
In the Philippines, the spread of the coronavirus has made the relaxation of social distancing measures “more unlikely” this year, economists added.
Goldman cut its growth forecast by more than 100 basis points for Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. Singapore and Thailand saw less reduction from the bank’s share.
Slow vaccination rate
Singapore has one of the fastest vaccination rates in the world, with more than 41% of its population fully vaccinated, according to the latest data compiled by the online statistics portal Our World in Data.
Singapore, which tightened social distancing measures in early May, began easing restrictions last month. Goldman economists have predicted that Malaysia will be next to follow suit in the fourth quarter, while other Southeast Asian economies will only follow suit in the first half of 2022.
Meanwhile, “higher exposures to sectors like tourism, lower exposures to global trade, and limited political buffers are expected to lower sequential growth in Indonesia and Thailand, and maintain the rebound in sequential growth in the Philippines. more moderate than our previous expectations, ”he added.