Les experts en maladies pensent qu'une combinaison de temps chaud et de moins de rassemblements publics peut avoir contribué à ralentir la propagation du virus. </p><div> <ul class="summary-list"><li>Les cas quotidiens de coronavirus au Royaume-Uni sont tombés à 25 000 lundi après un récent pic de près de 55 000 le 17 juillet.</li>
Daily cases of coronavirus in the UK are declining almost rapidly as they increased earlier this summer.
In the first two weeks of July, the average number of daily cases there jumped 80%, peaking at nearly 55,000 on July 17. That’s close to levels seen during the worst days of the UK’s winter epidemic, when vaccines were not yet widely available.
But cases have declined dramatically over the past week, dropping to just 25,000 cases on Monday, as the graph below shows.
UK COVID-19 cases over the past month
The experts, while surprised, have a few theories as to what happened. A recent drop in testing could be a factor: The UK administered 9% fewer tests this week than it did three weeks before, and testing has generally declined since mid-March.
“A lot of people who become symptomatic become more mildly symptomatic because they are younger or have been vaccinated,” Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the United States Food and Drug Administration, told CNBC Monday. “So these people don’t show up for testing. “
But a more likely explanation, other experts say, is a combination of warm weather – which encourages people to spend less time indoors – and fewer public gatherings.
The Euro 2020 football championship, which ended two weeks ago, may have temporarily spiked cases in the UK, as the semi-finals took place at Wembley Stadium in London on 6-7 July, then the finals on July 11. Many schools have also closed for summer vacation. the week.
Additionally, the recent spike in cases may have prompted more people to self-isolate, either to avoid getting sick or because they had experienced exposure to someone with COVID-19.
UK’s promising trajectory could bode well for the US
However, there is no guarantee that the downward trend in cases in the UK will last, especially as most social distancing restrictions were lifted on July 19. Since then places like restaurants, clubs and festivals have reopened. Official case numbers usually reflect the spread of infections two weeks ago, due to the incubation period of the virus and the time it takes to get tested, get results and have those results reported to health authorities.
“Today’s figures of course do not include any impact from the end of restrictions last Monday,” Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, told the BBC. “It won’t be until next Friday before the data includes the impact of this change. “
It is therefore possible that the case totals will increase again from next week. Nevertheless, vaccines should continue to prevent fully immunized people from becoming seriously ill. New research suggests that two doses of the vaccine from Pfizer or AstraZeneca are 88% and 67% effective at preventing symptomatic COVID-19 from the Delta variant – the UK’s dominant strain, respectively.
The UK’s promising trajectory could even bode well for other highly vaccinated counties like the US, where cases are on the rise.
“If the UK does pass, that’s a pretty good indication that we may be further ahead than we think,” Gottlieb told CNBC. “Maybe we’re two or three weeks away from starting to see our own set here in the United States. ”