In a press release issued this afternoon following our analysis of what happened with the Marvel Cinematic Universe title, NATO asks how a well-reviewed, well-received, and much-anticipated Marvel title can underperform. leading to a first Friday-Saturday collapse weekend of -41%, and a -67% drop on weekend 2? NATO comes to the same conclusions as we do regarding Black Widow getting their legs removed: the Disney + home hack and cannibalization impacting not only the box office but the next home window in the photo as well.
‘Black Widow’ Releases Biggest Second Weekend Soundtrack Drop for Disney MCU Title; Studio Silent on PVOD Update as Hacking Impacts Photo
The Disney + Day and Date model of the Disney cinema “ignores that Premiere Access revenue is not new money, but has been taken out of a more traditional PVOD window, which is no longer an option,” reports the ‘NATO.
“Despite claims that this hasty pandemic-era release strategy has been a success for Disney and the concurrent release model, it demonstrates that an exclusive theatrical release means more revenue for all stakeholders at every cycle of the film’s life ”, underlines the NATO statement.
Considering the opening day / weekend ratios of other comparable Marvel films and other pandemic era blockbuster titles like F9 and A quiet place part II, NATO says that Black Widow should have opened between $ 92 million and $ 100 million. “Based on preview income, compared to the same titles, Black Widow could have opened between $ 97 and $ 130 million, ”the statement added.
NATO goes further by specifying the amount of dollars lost for the two Black Widow and exhibit: “The average number of people per household in the United States is 2.37. Presumably the family-oriented Disney + household is bigger. How? How much password sharing is there among Disney + subscribers? Combined with the loss of theatrical revenue and traditional PVOD revenue, the answer to these questions will show that the simultaneous release costs Disney money in revenue per viewer over the life of the film.
NATO also highlighted the Torrent Freak report where we cited how, for the week ending July 12, Black Widow was the most pirated movie. We heard from industry sources that Black Widow has been hacked even more than Wonder Woman 1984.
“Piracy has undoubtedly still affected Black Widow, and will affect its future performance in international markets where it has not yet opened, ”the NATO statement said, with blank copies“ also available on a myriad of illegal streaming sites all over the Internet ”.
NATO concludes: “This was also the case for all simultaneous releases (Wonder Woman 1984, Godzilla contre Kong, Cruella, Mortal Kombat). This did not happen for F9 or A Quiet Place, Part II. How much money has everyone lost due to concurrent versions hacking? The many questions raised by Disney’s limited opening weekend streaming data release are quickly answered by Black Widow’s disappointing and abnormal performance. The most important answer is that simultaneous release is an artifact of the pandemic era that should be left to history with the pandemic itself. “
NATO also clarified, as we did, that Disney + does not keep 100% of its Premier revenue, but 15% goes to platform providers.
At the start of the pandemic last March, before all cinemas were closed, NATO spoke out against the release date and date of Universal then in theaters of PVOD for World tour of the trolls. Very quickly, due to COVID, this turned out to be largely a PVOD version with only drive-ins running at that time, reserving the sequel to Dreamworks Animation. A few months later, AMC publicly criticized Universal for trying to crack the windows, which resulted in a peaceful settlement between the studio and Exhibitor # 1 that the cinema window was blocked on most titles. for 17 days, followed by a simultaneous release of PVOD, of which AMC would be able to share. On those titles opening north of $ 50 million, Uni’s theatrical window lasts longer than 30 days before hitting PVOD.