An important detail that Edmonton Oilers general manager Ken Holland fully understood about the deal with Duncan Keith – .

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An important detail that Edmonton Oilers general manager Ken Holland fully understood about the deal with Duncan Keith – .


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It comes from Edmonton Oilers general manager Ken Holland for refusing to include prospects like Dmitri Samorukov, Raphael Lavoie, Dylan Holloway, Ryan McLeod, Evan Bouchard or Philip Broberg in any trade for former Blackhawks Duncan Keith. from Chicago.

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“Wayne Gretzky can be traded, so anyone can be traded,” Holland told Oilers Now’s Bob Stauffer. “But certainly, the players you just mentioned are key players for this team, for this organization, because they give hope that they can become regular players who can contribute to the success of a hockey team. We have to develop them properly. In this deal for Duncan Keith, you’re absolutely right, they weren’t up to it at all. “

My opinion

1. I’m not sure the Oilers have the right pro advice and the right granular, in-depth, one-on-one analysis to figure this out when it comes to bringing in outside players. I’m not saying whether or not they do it, just that some deals have been uncertain, most notably the signing of Kyle Turris last summer. But it boosts my own confidence to hear Holland make that statement. Of course, it would have been foolish to trade Class A prospects like Bouchard, Holloway and Broberg for a declining superstar like Keith, but it was rumored that Class A prospects like Samorukov, McLeod and Lavoie could be on the table. . If Holland had included any of those A- prospects in the deal, in addition to Caleb Jones, a B + prospect at this point, I would have considered it gross incompetence. I am very relieved to hear Holland say that it was never on the table.

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2. Caleb Jones still has a chance to be among the top 4 defensive players in the NHL. He only had one chance last year, but his game has taken a back seat. It may not be unexpected. For example, Jeff Petry’s game took a backseat in 2012-13 before doing much better in 2013-14 and 2014-15 with the Oilers (only for the team to trade). It could be that Jones is bouncing hard, just like Petry did, although I don’t consider Jones to have the same great tools as Petry. He’s not as tall, not as lanky, and not as strong a skater as Petry. I wish the Oilers had given Jones another chance, but it’s not like he didn’t have the chance. He did and he stumbled a bit. The same cannot be said of players like McLeod, Lavoie and Samorukov. They haven’t stumbled yet. They could easily become Core-12 players on the Oilers. It’s almost a draw for all of them if they hit that level of play, I would say. It’s a very good chance for the young players, so for Holland, to take out both Jones and one of those A prospects for Keith would have been a terrible goal against his own camp for the GM.

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3. There are a lot of people who hold strong opinions about Duncan Keith’s worth. I have expressed a few of them myself, although I have tried to restrain any certainty I might express. Why? How many Oilers fans saw Duncan Keith’s play enough last season to assess his worth fairly and accurately? About 1 in 500, I guess. I am not in this category. I haven’t seen him play at all.

And how many have access to granular, reliable and precise individual analyzes for a deep dive on it? A fan ? What I’m seeing is that a lot of fans are using shot metrics to gauge it, the same numbers that are so determined by a player’s teammates, as opposed to his own game on the ice, that Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl had a low number of shooting shares in 2019-20, placing them as below-par forwards in both the NHL and their squad. Could the same have happened to Duncan Keith’s fire-sharing measures? You better believe it.

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4. What are the percentage odds that Keith’s deal works well for the Oilers, that Keith provides decent value, which I define as helping the team win the playoff round as a 2nd dman pairing? My own rough estimate, based on her age and the decrease in strength point production, is that she is around 40/60 in the first year, 30/70 in the second year. But maybe Keith will exceed that expectation. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he did, because he has a lot of guys in the NHL who vouch for his ability to play again.

5. In the end, it doesn’t matter what I think or you think of the matter. It is done. All that matters now is Keith’s play. Having said that, I have never seen much agreement from Oilers fans on the ability of defensemen. We’ll watch him play and we still won’t be close to agreeing on his value, I can guarantee that. Why? A huge faction of fans trusted the shooting share numbers, the same numbers that make them think Ethan Bear was a strong NHL player this year, and Caleb Jones was at least OK, with the top two players. right now that Duncan Keith. Others who watched Bear and Jones closely in every game, and didn’t give much importance to the number of shooting shares, saw two players who at times struggled mightily.

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The funniest result for Keith next year? For him to have decent to great shot splits like Bear and Jones this year and thus win the shot share crowd that way, but also for him to fight so much and flee so many scoring opportunities against this so-called Eye test fans rate it badly.

That said, I’m not hoping for this crazy ending, even if it would make me laugh. I would prefer him to come and play a solid defense while moving the puck efficiently, just like Andrej Sekera did so well in 2016-17 before he suffered a serious injury.

Fingers crossed that Keith could be the new Sekera for a year or two. I don’t think it’s likely, but I don’t think it’s impossible either.

L’accord Duncan Keith au Cult of Hockey

LEAVINS: Advocate for Duncan Keith

STAPLES: Ken Holland speaks out after acquiring Duncan Keith

STAPLES: Is the addition of Duncan Keith to the Oilers “a major bet”?

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