Novak runs the one-on-one meetings of this pair, but only – 29-28. It’s a different story on clay though, where Rafa, as you might expect, has a 19-7 advantage.
Nadal is the favorite here, but as this article on the ATP site details, his opponent was better in pressure situations during this year’s tournament. Novak has saved 86% of the breaking points he’s faced, while Rafa’s rate is surprisingly low at 50%. It’s a similar story in converted breakpoints, where Novak has the 63% to 49.3% advantage. And then it’s been a pretty good week for Serbian sports superstars with Nikola Jokic taking home the NBA Most Valuable Player award. And if it feels like I’m holding on to straws looking for signs of an upheaval, it’s because I am.