- The price of Bitcoin could further formalize the right shoulder with a head and shoulders pattern.
- Ethereum price rewinds minor gains, again trading below the 200-day SMA.
- The rebound in XRP prices looks vulnerable after a failure to energize buyers of Ripple despite the noticeable rise.
The price of Bitcoin stops at the upper trendline of a previous symmetrical triangle, almost canceling out the last two days of gains in the process. Ethereum’s price continues to re-test the 2020 uptrend line from the March 2020 low, providing a credible point of concern for the smart contract giant’s longer-term outlook. XRP price jumped 26% over the previous two days, but the May 23 low remains instructive as resistance.
Bitcoin price fumbles, but 30,000 remains a firm support level
The price of bitcoin rose 23% from the June 22 low of $ 28,800 to today’s high of $ 35,500, mostly overcoming the 11% drop on June 21. The rebound stopped today at the upper trendline of the long-standing symmetrical triangle, forcing a retracement today. The rebound was supported by a day with above average volume, and the other two saw declining volumes, suggesting waning engagement from BTC enthusiasts.
The developing retracement may see the price of Bitcoin testing $ 30,000, as round numbers tend to magnetize the price, as shown in the work of Monroe Trout. Depending on the environment in altcoins, it may sweep the June 22 low of $ 28,800.
From a broader perspective, the price of Bitcoin triggered the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern on June 22. The pattern remains active until the right shoulder high of $ 41,332 is defeated, shifting the odds slightly higher for a deeper decline moving forward. Potentially at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the March 2020-April 2021 lead.
BTC / USD daily chart
Market dynamics can change rapidly in the cryptocurrency complex, so it is imperative to take into account resistance levels and upside targets. A secure rally above today’s high of $ 35,500 will strengthen the resistance of a larger rally. Significant resistance appears at the convergence of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $ 40,103 and the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Additional resistance is at the right shoulder high of $ 41,322 and then the 200 day SMA at $ 42,604, providing a 22% return to investors using today’s high as a trigger.
A five wave Elliot downtrend, bullish divergence and remarkable support around $ 30,000 should contain any further weakness. Still, a daily close below the June 22 low of $ 28,800 will increase the odds of at least one more complex bottoming process or even a new lower leg.
Ethereum price teetered higher as other altcoins surged
On June 22, Ethereum’s price posted a new low after hitting the May 23 low of $ 1,728. ETH closed on June 22 with a doji candlestick pattern on the 200-day SMA at $ 1,878, dictating indecision and a deadlock between sellers and buyers. The immediate response to the trend was two days higher, with a 9% gain on June 23-24. A much lower return than Bitcoin and most altcoins.
Today, the price of Ethereum drops 9%, endangering the upward trendline of 2020 and the 61.8% retracement of the advance from March 2020 to May 2021 at $ 1,730 and June 22 low at $ 1,700. A daily close below $ 1,700 will be a harbinger that it is also involved in a more complex bottoming process which may include testing the 2018 high of $ 1,419 and a 20% drop from the current price. The sell-off would eventually push the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) into an oversold state.
ETH / USD daily chart
A close above $ 2,041, the high and influential February level, could introduce another opportunity on the long side for ETH. Resistance will be discovered at the 50% retracement of the March 2020 to May 2021 advance at $ 2,237. Nonetheless, a daily close above the retracement level should allow Ethereum price to move up to the confluence of the top of the symmetrical triangle, the 50-day SMA at $ 2,750 and the daily Ichimoku cloud, showing a gain of 35% from $ 2,041.
There’s no other way to tell, Ethereum’s price has been zombie-like, showing no signs of relative strength against Bitcoin or other digital assets. The low price profile is shown in the chart below, where Ethereum is poised to hit a new low against Bitcoin. The daily RSI is still not oversold, indicating a decline in prices in the near term.
ETH / BTC daily chart
XRP price may hesitate before rising in summer
At June 22 low, XRP price was down 70% from April high of $ 1.96 and an incredible 50% from June 1 high while destroying May 23 low of 0.652 $. Nonetheless, Ripple achieved three important technical milestones that caused a significant level of support: a test of the 78.6% retracement of the December 2020-2021 lead at $ 0.555, a touch of the 50-week SMA at $ 0.539. and an oversold daily reading. RSI for the first time since late December 2020. The result was a 35% rally from the June 22 low of $ 0.512 to the June 24 high of $ 0.692 and a close above the May 23 low of $ 0.652.
The daily close above $ 0.652 increases the odds that the price of XRP has posted a formidable low, and the 78.6% retracement should contain any residual selling pressure at $ 0.555. A strong buy renewal will be initiated by an intimidating resistance level between the 200-day SMA at $ 0.728 and then the multi-year neckline of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern at $ 0.760.
XRP / USD Daily Chart
A daily close below the June 22 low should discourage XRP investors and shift the focus to much lower prices.
Supporting a bearish outlook for the price of XRP is its performance against Bitcoin. XRP / BTC broke below the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern on June 10 and continued to fall until the 200-day SMA. The magnitude of the decline did not reach the measured movement of the model, suggesting that the price of XRP may continue to underperform Bitcoin in the near future.
The underperformance could come with a giant swing lower than Bitcoin, a break or stronger BTC. Whatever the reason, the price of XRP could consider shorter term weakness until the measured movement target is reached.
XRP / BTC Daily Chart
The oversold daily RSI reading may indicate that the underperformance may be limited.
The cryptocurrency market is a unique arena for market technicians. It’s just supply and demand at its most extreme. There are no benefits, evaluation measures or government intervention (yet). Instead, fear and greed drives the ship, putting technical analysis at the top of analysis and projections.