reCarpet makers run by U.S. companies Pfizer and Moderna are expected to make tens of billions of dollars from their Covid-19 vaccines this year and next, given the G7 governments’ commitment to immunize the entire world from by the end of 2022, but sales are expected to drop sharply thereafter, analysts say.
Hailed for enabling a return to a more normal life, Covid vaccines will also substantially benefit some pharmaceutical companies. The global vaccine market is worth $ 70 billion (£ 50 billion) this year, says Morningstar’s Karen Andersen.
Pfizer and Moderna, which charge more than $ 30 per person for the two required shots in Europe and the United States, will take the lion’s share. Analysts believe they could generate more than $ 50 billion in revenue from their Covid jabs this year. Meanwhile, Anglo-Swedish AstraZeneca and American Johnson & Johnson have pledged to provide their nonprofit vaccines until the pandemic is over.
Last month, Pfizer predicted it would make $ 26 billion from its jab in 2021, one-third of annual revenue. This was based on orders received in mid-April, so this is probably an underestimate. Morgan Stanley analysts led by David Risinger raised their estimates for Pfizer to $ 33 billion in 2021 and $ 32 billion in 2022, halved to $ 16.5 billion in 2023 and $ 8.2 billion. dollars in 2024.
“We expect the world to be essentially vaccinated by the end of 2022, so for 2023 and beyond, sales would mostly consist of the minimum age cohort and boosters,” Risinger said. “We expect the data to support boosters uptake in 2022, but we don’t know if annual boosters will be needed longer term. “
Barclays analyst Carter Gould predicts even higher revenue for Pfizer this year – $ 38 billion, falling to about $ 17 billion in 2022, $ 8.5 billion in 2023 and $ 6.3 billion in 2024 .
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said in May that the company had agreed to supply 116 countries and was in negotiations with many more for a total of 2.7 billion doses in 2021. Two-fifths, or more than ‘a billion doses, should reach the average. – and low-income countries.
Moderna, which has secured funding from the U.S. government to develop its vaccine, made its first quarterly profit from the jab and expects to generate $ 19.2 billion in revenue as it aims to produce $ 1 billion. doses this year and up to 3 billion doses next year.
Barclays analyst Gena Wang predicts slightly higher sales of $ 19.6 billion, falling to $ 12.2 billion in 2022 and around $ 11 billion in each of the following two years. Morgan Stanley analysts have forecast $ 13.5 billion next year, falling to $ 12.5 billion in 2023 and 2024.
It is the largest global vaccination campaign in history. More than 2.5 billion doses have been administered in 180 countries, according to data released by Bloomberg – enough to fully immunize 16.4% of the world’s population. However, the distribution has been very uneven, with high-income countries and regions being vaccinated more than 30 times faster than lower-income ones.
Johnson & Johnson, which charges the US government $ 10 per dose for its single-shot vaccine, is expected to generate $ 6.6 billion in revenue this year, according to Barclays calculations in March, followed by $ 1.2 billion in 2022 and $ 383 million in 2023. For AstraZeneca, which charges between $ 4.30 and $ 10 for two doses, Barclays projects $ 5.2 billion in sales in 2021, falling to $ 2.3 and $ 475 million in the next two years.
Other Covid vaccines that could bring billions of dollars to their manufacturers include the CoronaVac jab developed by Chinese Sinovac and Russian Nasdaq-listed Sputnik V. Sinovac has built factories capable of producing 2 billion doses per year and reported a four-fold increase in sales to $ 328 million between October and December.
Two other new vaccines, from the American Novavax and the German CureVac, have suffered delays. A Novavax report of 90% effectiveness after trials in the United States and Mexico spiked its shares last week. After manufacturing issues, the firm plans to file for regulatory approval in the United States before the end of September.
The UK has ordered 60 million doses of the Novavax vaccine, which will be manufactured in Stockton-on-Tees. Novavax has also agreed to provide 1.1 billion doses to Covax, the UN-led initiative to deliver vaccines to the poorest countries.
In March, its managing director, Stan Erck, had mentioned “the potential of several billion dollars in income in the next 12 months.” Barclays projects $ 7.7 billion in revenue for Novavax in 2021, falling to $ 1.8 billion and $ 538 million over the next two years.
The CureVac jab is said to be the third Covid mRNA vaccine in the world, after Pfizer and Moderna, but it was only 47% effective against the coronavirus in an interim review of late-stage trials published last week. It did not meet the criteria for statistical success, said the Tübingen-based company, 23% owned by the German government and having received funding from it to develop the vaccine. CureVac’s share price plunged 40% on Thursday.