Michigan and some surrounding states have the first authentic risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has demarcated an area in southern Lower Michigan that could experience severe thunderstorms.
The forecast below describes the varying degrees of threat of severe thunderstorms on Father’s Day.
Starting with the threat of destructive wind makes sense because it gives us an idea of the most likely path of a line of severe thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms could occur in Iowa and cross northern Illinois, northern Indiana and southwestern Lower Michigan.
The Storm Prediction Center says the initial thunderstorms early Sunday afternoon could be producers of “big to very big” hail. The large hail forecast below shows a black hatched area, which is the most likely area for large hail. Only the southwest corner of Lower Michigan poses a significant threat from large hail.
The Storm Prediction Center exposes the southern third of Lower Michigan to isolated tornadoes.
Grand Rapids, Lansing, Flint, Detroit, Ann Arbor, Jackson, Kalamazoo, and all of southern Lower have a five percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any point.
To give you an idea of how thunderstorms can develop, here is a good weather computer model that usually predicts accurately in this typical situation.
The general scenario is that powerful thunderstorms are expected to move southwestern Lower Michigan between 5 p.m. and 7 p.m. Sunday, then move through southern Lower for the remainder of the evening. The extreme southeast could have extreme weather conditions until 9 p.m. or 10 p.m.
Prepare for our first row of severe thunderstorms this year, especially if you live anywhere along I-94 and south to the Indiana and Ohio borders.
Watch for updates tomorrow on MLive.com.