British Columbia could almost eliminate COVID-19 by September with 70% contact rate and high vaccine use: officials – –

Dr Bonnie Henry – BC – fr

Provincial modeling shows British Columbia could nearly eliminate COVID-19 by September if second-dose vaccination is high and personal interactions remain well below pre-pandemic levels.

According to data presented Thursday by provincial health worker Dr Bonnie Henry, a 70% interaction rate, combined with high vaccine use, would mean nearly zero new cases per day by the start of the month. .

Is British Columbia On Track For Stage Two Of COVID-19 Restart Plan?

Is British Columbia on Track for Stage Two of COVID-19 Restart Plan?

In comparison, with a lower vaccination and an 80% interaction rate, British Columbia would likely record 200 new cases of COVID-19 per day in early September.

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The virus’s reproduction rate continues to fall, now well below 1.0 across all health authorities. The provincial average is between 0.57 and 0.63. This means that for 100 cases, only 57 to 63 will be passed on to someone else.

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People aged 5 to 12 represent 6.1% of cases and 7.7% of the population.

The 13 to 18 year olds represent 6.7% of cases and 6% of the population.

There have been no deaths among school-aged children from COVID-19.

Hospitalizations related to the virus are one in 200 for school-aged children compared to one in 20 for those 19 and over.

The province is expected to slowly reopen, with Stage 2 scheduled to begin on June 15.

Read more:

COVID-19: British Columbia presents restart plan including return to normal by September

This stage includes personal outdoor gatherings of up to 50 people, indoor children’s games, indoor gatherings of up to 50 people with a COVID-19 security plan in place and opening of cinemas .

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It would also allow recreational trips across the province, the consumption of alcohol in licensed establishments until midnight and the resumption of activities in banquet halls.

High intensity indoor group exercises would also be permitted with reduced capacity, as well as indoor games and practices for adults and group / team sports for young people. Outdoor sports can have up to 50 spectators.

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COVID-19: BC clinics open for people who still need first vaccine, modeling data sneak peek

COVID-19: BC clinics open for people who still need first vaccine, modeling data sneak peek

The passage to the next stage is based on vaccinations and transmission of the virus.

When the province announced the restart plan on May 25, the seven-day moving average for daily cases was 329 and there were 301 people hospitalized.

As of Thursday, the seven-day average was 168 cases and the number of hospitalizations was 195. In addition, the number of intensive care patients fell from 93 to 47.

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Immunizations are another crucial measure. The province said on Wednesday that 74.5% of adults had received at least one dose of the vaccine, well above the threshold needed to move to stage 2.

Some areas of the province still have higher transmission rates.

Grand Forks is the province’s current hotspot with 16 new cases per 100,000 population. Abbotsford, Cranbrook and Upper Skeena all have about 10 cases per 100,000.

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