The coronavirus crisis in India, the recovery of the US economy have boosted the numbers, but a “cyclical peak” is looming – fr

0
15
The coronavirus crisis in India, the recovery of the US economy have boosted the numbers, but a “cyclical peak” is looming – fr


China’s total trade surplus stood at US $ 42.85 billion in April, compared to US $ 13.8 billion in March.

“The growth of Chinese exports surprised again on the upside. Two factors probably contributed to the strong growth in exports. First, the US economy is booming, boosting global demand. Second, the Covid crisis in India has caused production delays, which is why some orders have been moved to China, ”said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

“We expect Chinese export growth to remain strong in the second half of this year, as both factors are likely to continue to favor Chinese manufacturers. Exports will be a key pillar of growth in China this year. It also helps the yuan perform well among emerging market currencies. “

Growth in overall trade accelerated last month on favorable base effects. But in seasonally adjusted terms, exports continued to stabilize and the rebound in imports stagnated
Julian Evans-Pritchard

But Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior economist for China at Capital Economics, pointed out that Chinese exports continued to stabilize and that the rebound in imports had stagnated last month in seasonally adjusted terms, partly showing supply constraints, which were more visible in the electronics sector.

“Global trade growth accelerated last month thanks to favorable base effects. But in seasonally adjusted terms, exports continued to stabilize and the rebound in imports stagnated. This partly reflects supply constraints, which are most visible in the electronics industry. But we think demand is probably near a cyclical peak too, ”said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior economist for China at Capital Economics.

“Looking ahead, we believe trading volumes are likely to be near a cyclical peak. Of course, the current supply constraints should ease over the next few quarters. But at the same time, vaccine deployments and the easing of social distancing restrictions in developed markets will begin to reverse the pandemic-induced surge in demand for Chinese exports.

“Meanwhile, China’s domestic recovery is stabilizing and a tighter policy means that the composition of production should shift to services and away from credit and import-intensive sectors like industry. and construction. “

In terms of trading partners, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) remained the largest in the first four months of the year, followed by the European Union, the United States and from Japan.

China’s exports to Asean increased 42.16 percent to US $ 41.096 billion in April from the previous year, while imports from Asean increased by 40.64 percent in April. cent to US $ 31.375 billion.

Chinese exports to the European Union increased 23.81% to reach US $ 39.918 billion in April from the previous year, while imports increased 43.28% to reach US $ 26.794 billion .

In the midst of their ongoing dispute,

which intensified further on Thursday as China “indefinitely suspended” all activities under the China-Australia strategic economic dialogue, exports to Australia rose 19.74% to $ 5.25 billion EU in April compared with a year earlier, while imports were up 49.31. percent to US $ 14.865 billion.

In April, China’s trade surplus with the United States rose to US $ 28.11 billion, from US $ 21.37 billion in March. April’s surplus increased 22.92% from a year earlier.

Chinese imports from the United States increased 51.65 percent to reach US $ 13.94 billion in April, while exports increased 31.16 percent to reach US $ 42.05 billion .

In the first four months of the year, China’s trade surplus with the United States was US $ 100.68 billion – 58% higher than US $ 63.676 in the same period last year , according to Chinese customs data.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here