Scottish nationalists are unlikely to win an outright majority in Thursday’s parliamentary election, a blow to their hopes of calling for an independence referendum that could divide the UK, a Savanta Comres / The Scotsman poll has shown .
The Scottish National Party (SNP) wants a majority in the decentralized parliament to demand another referendum, although UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said he will not grant one.
The Savanta Comres / The Scotsman poll indicated that the SNP would lose six seats before winning an outright majority, but the Green Party, which cooperates with the SNP, could win up to nine seats.
“If those poll numbers play into Thursday’s vote, it will likely leave the SNP below the majority,” said Chris Hopkins, director of policy research at Savanta ComRes.
Savanta ComRes interviewed 1,001 Scottish adults online between April 30 and May 4. Other polls suggested the prospect of an SNP majority was too close to call.
The only time the SNP had won a majority before was in 2011. Then British Prime Minister David Cameron bowed to the pressure and accepted a referendum in 2014. The Scots then voted 55. -45% to stay in the group for more than 300 years. union.
In a pre-election debate, SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon said she would not call an illegal, so-called “wild” referendum if Prime Minister Johnson refused to allow one.
But she and her party have repeatedly raised the threat of legal action if Johnson denies it.
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