The survey for Good Morning Britain d’ITV by pollsters Survation gives Jill Mortimer, the Conservative candidate in the North East constituency, held by Labor since 1964, 50 percent of the vote in the region.
That’s a huge lead over Labor candidate Paul Williams in the region once represented by key New Labor architect Peter Mandelson, with just 33% of respondents saying they would vote for Sir Keir Starmer’s party during the the May 6 by-election. .
According to the poll, 3% intend to vote green and only 1% said they would vote for the Liberal Democrats in Hartlepool – a constituency which voted almost 70% in favor of leaving in the Brexit referendum from 2016.
In the 2019 general election, the Labor Party, which suffered major defeats in some parts of the “red wall” in one of its worst results, retained Hartlepool with 37% of the vote, compared to 28% for the Conservatives.
However, support for the Brexit Party, which won 25% of the vote in the winter election, now appears to have collapsed under its new image of Reform UK. Only one percent of voters polled suggested they would vote for the party’s candidate.
The poll, which included interviews with 517 people living in the region between April 23 and 29, also showed that 51% of those polled view the prime minister “favorably” – compared with just 22% for Sir Keir.
It comes as large swathes of Britain prepare to go to the polls later this week in elections across the country, including ballots for metro mayors in major cities and elections to the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments.
And in Tees Valley, 63% of respondents said they would vote for Tory President Ben Houchen, with 37% opting for Jessie Joe Jacobs.
In the eight constituencies, which report to the mayor of Tees Valley, including Redcar, Sedgefield and Darlington, five turned blue in the 2019 winter general election. In the 2017 vote, Mr Houchen won the contest against his rival Labor by just over 2,000 votes.
Trying to downplay the Tories’ expectations after his third visit to Hartlepool on Monday, the Prime Minister told supporters at a fundraiser that it would be a “huge challenge” for the party to win.
“I want to point out that a lot of people are talking about Hartlepool – I just got there,” he said at the event, according to Politico. “I think it’s important for people to understand that this is not a seat the Conservatives have ever occupied.
“This is Peter Mandelson’s favorite field. It is very important that everyone is aware of the deep psephological reality, it is a huge, huge challenge, it would be quite an extraordinary thing in my opinion if it were to happen.
Pressed on BBC Radio 4 today program if election results later this week would reflect his leadership – more than a year after taking over from Jeremy Corbyn – Sir Keir said: “Yes, and I take full responsibility for the results, I take full responsibility for the results. responsibility for everything that happens in the country. Labor Party under my leadership.
Speaking directly on the party’s prospects in the by-elections, the Labor Party added: “Well, I hope we don’t lose Hartlepool. We fight for every vote there and I know every vote has to be won and that’s why I’ve been to Hartlepool three times during the campaign and we have teams on the pitch.
“My job as a Labor leader was to rebuild the Labor Party from this devastating loss in 2019 and put ourselves in a position to win the next general election. I said the day I was elected this is a mountain to climb – it is, we are climbing it and I have a burning desire to build a better future for a country and Thursday is a first step towards this better future.
“But I don’t think anyone realistically thought that it was possible to take the Labor Party from the worst general election result since 1935 to a position to win the next general election within a year: he was always going to take longer than that.