Cotes Jazz vs Grizzlies
|Grizzly Bear Ratings||+5|
|Moneyline||-200 / +165|
|Time||Samedi, 21 h 30 HE|
|Odds starting Friday night and via DraftKings.|
The Grizzlies entered their best-of-seven streak against the Hot Jazz, having beaten the Spurs and Warriors in the play-in tournament to get here.
They kept things going in Utah, winning Game 1 against a surprisingly Jazz Donovan Mitchell before making an impressive second-half effort to make Utah sweat in Game 2. the leader of the series.
Let’s break down the first two games and see how that translates to the value of bets in Game 3.
Utah’s defense needs to improve… right?
The most confusing part of this series is the defense of the Jazz, who struggled to contain Ja Morant through two games, especially Game 2.
Utah had the third-best defensive rating in the NBA during the regular season at 107.5, according to NBA Advanced Stats. That’s what made it seem like this could finally be the year of Jazz in the playoffs.
However, it took a phenomenal shooting performance to bring down Memphis in Game 2. Utah shot 54.4% from the field and 19 of 39 (48.7%) at 3 points. The Jazz never slowed down, scoring at least 36 points in three of four quarters en route to a win.
The win seemed to be in the bag thanks to a 20-point halftime lead, but the Grizzlies won the third quarter, 43-29, because of Morant.
Offensively, Utah hasn’t changed much from the regular season. He still relies heavily on the 3-point shot, although that does help bring Mitchell back. Jazz also thrive on glass thanks to Rudy Gobert, who led the team in minutes in Game 2.
Defense must improve, however. I think it has a lot to do with Mitchell coming back in Game 2. It will always take time to get used to a key player like this coming back after a long absence, and making it into the playoffs. is not easy.
I expect Utah to return to defense in Game 3. It also seems unlikely that Morant and Dillon Brooks will combine to shoot 25 of 40 on the field again.
Grizzly bears seek to continue riding Morant
In two playoff games, the Grizzlies also moved all-in on some predominant regular-season models.
The first is an addiction to shooting inside the arch. Memphis is averaging 21.5 3-pointers per game, which was the second-lowest NBA entering Friday night’s playoff list. The Grizzlies’ 71 2-pointers per game lead the remaining teams in the playoffs.
With that comes the second model: everything goes through Morant.
Morant is 2 of 8 from a 3-point range in two games, but he’s shooting 55.3% from the field. As he did against the Warriors, he managed to get into the painting. Utah were such a fantastic defensive team during the regular season, so their inability to contain Morant was a disappointment.
This mostly speaks of Morant’s greatness, however. His 47 points in Game 2 were spectacular, as he single-handedly kept the Grizzlies in that game. The 21-year-old will need to maintain his stellar game to keep Memphis’ season alive.
Brooks is also thriving thanks to two games in this series, averaging 27 points per game with 57.5% shooting. He has only averaged 32.1 minutes per game so far, although this was mostly due to foul issues in Game 2.
Choice of Jazz-Grizzlies
In terms of regression to the average, the defense of the Jazz stands out. It just needs to improve. I refuse to believe that the regular season was a mirage and that they suddenly have to win a penalty shootout. Otherwise, they’re in trouble against some of those talented Western Conference offensives.
I like to only have five in Game 3. I see Utah making it a priority to contain Morant and Brooks inside the arc. If the Jazz doesn’t, then it’s time to really start hammering the panic button.
There is just too much history (AKA all regular season, with or without Mitchell) to tell me that Utah is a good defensive team. I’m going to take Jazz as my favorite on the road here to take the lead in the series.
Take: Jazz -5