‘Breakout variant’ could be the source of second deadly wave of COVID-19 in India: Modeler – fr

0
21
‘Breakout variant’ could be the source of second deadly wave of COVID-19 in India: Modeler – fr


India reported 1.5 million more new infections and a record daily death toll over the past week as its hospitals ran out of beds and medical oxygen

Content of the article

India’s main opposition leader Rahul Gandhi warned on Friday that unless the deadly second wave of COVID-19 sweeping the country is brought under control, it will decimate India and threaten the rest of the world.

In a letter, Gandhi implored Prime Minister Narendra Modi to prepare for another national lockdown, speed up a nationwide vaccination program, and track the virus and its mutations.

Gandhi said the world’s second most populous nation has a responsibility in “a globalized and interconnected world” to stop the “explosive” growth of COVID-19 within its borders.

“India is home to one in six human beings on the planet. The pandemic has demonstrated that our size, genetic diversity and complexity make India fertile ground for the virus to mutate rapidly, turning into a more contagious and dangerous form, ”Gandhi wrote.

“Allowing the uncontrollable spread of the virus in our country will be devastating not only for our people but also for the rest of the world.”

Publicity

This ad is not yet loaded, but your article continues below.

Content of the article

India’s highly contagious B.1.617 variant of COVID-19 has already spread to other countries such as Canada and Britain, forcing countries to cut or restrict movement from India.

Prominent US disease modeler Chris Murray, of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, said the scale of infections in India over a short period of time suggests that a “leak variant” could overcome any previous immunity against natural infections. .

“It most likely makes B.1.617,” he said. But Murray warned that gene sequencing data on the coronavirus in India is scarce and many cases are also due to the British and South African variants.

Murray was referring to the ability of the variants to evade natural immunity and his take is part of a new consensus emerging among scientists closely following the pandemic. Many have described how the breakthrough late last year of two vaccines with around 95% effectiveness against COVID-19 initially raised hopes that the virus could be largely contained.

But, they say, data in recent weeks on new variants from South Africa and Brazil has undermined that optimism. They now believe that SARS-CoV-2 will not only remain with us as an endemic virus, continuing to circulate in communities, but will likely cause a significant burden of disease and death for years to come.

Publicity

This ad is not yet loaded, but your article continues below.

Content of the article

Over the past week, India reported an additional 1.5 million new infections and a record daily death toll as its hospitals run out of beds and medical oxygen.

Since the start of the pandemic, it has reported 21.49 million cases and 234,083 deaths. It currently has 3.6 million active cases and infections are now spreading from overcrowded cities to remote rural villages that are home to nearly 70% of the 1.3 billion people.

“The huge outbreak is likely to continue into at least the second week of May, but given the extraordinary volume of infections in India, COVID-19 could soon run out of people to infect,” Murray projected.

Modi has been widely criticized for failing to act sooner to suppress Wave 2, after religious festivals and political rallies have drawn tens of thousands of people in recent weeks and turned into “super-broadcaster” events.

His government has also been criticized for lifting social restrictions too soon after the first wave and for delays in the country’s vaccination program, which medical experts say is India’s only hope of controlling the second wave. COVID-19.

Publicity

This ad is not yet loaded, but your article continues below.

Content of the article

While India is the world’s largest vaccine maker, it is struggling to produce and distribute enough doses to stem the tide of COVID-19.

Modi stressed that Indian states must maintain vaccination rates. Although the country has administered at least 157 million doses of the vaccine, its inoculation rate has dropped sharply in recent days.

“After hitting a rate of around 4 million per day, we are now down to 2.5 million per day due to vaccine shortages,” said Amartya Lahiri, professor of economics at the University of Colombia. Briton in the Mint newspaper.

“The 5 million a day goal is the lower end of what we need to aim for, because even at this rate, it will take us a year for everyone to receive two doses. The situation is unfortunately very bleak.

India reported another record daily increase in coronavirus cases on Friday, 414,188, bringing the total number of new cases for the week to 1.57 million. Deaths from COVID-19 increased from 3,915 to 234,083.

Allowing the uncontrollable spread of the virus in our country will be devastating not only for our people but also for the rest of the world.

Medical experts say the actual extent of COVID-19 in India is five to ten times the official figures.

India’s healthcare system is crumbling under the weight of patients as hospitals run out of beds and medical oxygen. Mortuaries and crematoriums cannot handle the number of dead and makeshift funeral pyres burned in parks and parking lots.

Publicity

This ad is not yet loaded, but your article continues below.

Content of the article

Although northern and western India are the most affected by the disease, southern India now appears to be the new epicenter. The share of the southern five states in the nation’s daily outbreak of infections rose from 28% to 33% in the first seven days of May, data showed.

In the southern city of Chennai, only one in a hundred beds with oxygen and two in a hundred beds in intensive care units (ICUs) were vacant on Thursday, compared with a vacancy rate of more than 20% every two weeks, according to the data. of the government. .

In India’s tech capital, Bengaluru, also in the south, only 23 of 590 intensive care unit beds were vacant, and only 1 in 50 beds with a ventilator was vacant, a situation officials say indicates a looming crisis .

The rate of positivity testing – the percentage of people tested with the disease – in the city of 12.5 million people tripled to almost 39% on Wednesday, from around 13% two weeks ago, data showed .

Patients run from hospital to hospital looking for an intensive care bed

Bengaluru has 325,000 active COVID-19 cases, with demand for intensive care beds and high dependency units (HDUs) more than 20 times higher, said HM Prasanna, president of the Association of Private Hospitals and Homes Karnataka State Nursing Center, which includes Bengaluru.

“Every patient who comes to the hospital needs an intensive care unit or an HDU bed… that’s why patients run from one hospital to another looking for a bed in the care unit. intensive, ”he said.

“There is also a shortage of medical oxygen … Most of the small hospitals that cannot get oxygen on a daily basis refuse to admit COVID patients.”

Publicity

This ad is not yet loaded, but your article continues below.

Publicity

This ad is not yet loaded, but your article continues below.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here