At the current rate, when will most Canadians be fully immunized against COVID-19? –

Canada’s first-dose vaccinations surpass those in the United States, as the U.S. daily rate declines – fr

TORONTO – More than 60% of eligible Canadians have been vaccinated with their first doses of COVID-19 vaccine in Canada. But the rate at which the second doses are delivered is still well beyond the rate of the first dose.

The federal government has previously declared that anyone eligible and willing to receive the vaccine can be fully immunized by September, but over the past seven days, Canada has vaccinated an average of almost 1% of Canadians with their first dose. and 0.11 percent of Canadians on their second dose.

If that vaccination rate continues through the summer, the country would have 20 percent of its eligible population – those 12 and older – fully vaccinated by early October.

The process could speed up considerably, however, if Canada received higher and more regular shipments from vaccine manufacturers over the next few months, in addition to shortening the intervals between the first and second doses.

The discrepancy between the first and second dose rate was the result of the National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) decision to extend the time between the first and second dose from four to 16 weeks.

“The idea was to partially vaccinate more people to reduce the likelihood of them transmitting the virus and getting sick from it,” Dr. Brenda Coleman, infectious disease epidemiologist at Sinai Health in Ontario, told , adding that after a dose of vaccine, the effectiveness is about 80%.

Considering the full vaccination rate for the general Canadian population, the current second dose vaccination rate has averaged 0.10 percent over the past seven days. Projected at this rate, 13% of the total population would receive both doses by the end of the summer and 25% of the total population would be fully immunized by the end of the year.

The tracker below currently shows a low projection for full vaccination due to the low rate of administration of the second dose. As the second dose rate increases each day, the projection updates. This tracker is useful for answering the question “If we keep the current pace, when will we reach our goals?” but it does not take into account future events that could alter vaccination rates.

That could change with the number of doses Canada will receive in the coming months.

To date, Canada has received more than 25.39 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine from manufacturers and, according to Brig.-Gen. Krista Brodie, confirmed more than 40 million doses at the end of June.

Dr Coleman says that with the increased doses Canada receives, up to 75 percent of adults can be fully immunized by the end of the summer.

“The number of doses scheduled by the end of August will likely be mostly used to give people a second injection,” Coleman said. “If so, 70-75% of adults should get both vaccines by the end of the summer if we can get them in people’s arms.”

With a large proportion of adults fully vaccinated, Coleman says this would significantly reduce the transmission rate of a herd immunity approach, but a full vaccination of 80 to 90 percent would help end the pandemic in Canada.

While the first doses are well advanced for adults, immunizations are only just beginning in young Canadians.

Earlier this month, Health Canada approved the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for children 12 years of age or older, citing clinical trials that showed the vaccine to be 100% effective in people aged 12 to 15.

“One of the reasons 12 to 17 year olds go to school is because they are in school, visiting friends and doing these kinds of things. So if we can get them vaccinated, we’ll reduce transmission, ”Coleman said.

If the wait time between the first and second dose is shortened, Coleman suggests prioritizing people with high transmission, including those 12 to 17 years old.

“We have to prioritize the people who are there and see a lot of people. So the people who work in the factories, the people in the health sector, the teachers, ”she said. “One of the other groups will be our kids going back to school… they can’t help but be in small rooms with lots of people around. So while they tend not to get as sick as the elderly, we don’t know what to expect from these mutations.


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