US coronavirus: US made little progress this week to prevent more deaths, influential forecasting team says

J & amp;  J boxes of Covid-19 vaccine seen at a vaccination site

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The forecast provided by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington on Friday is almost the same as last week: in the most likely scenario, 58,000 more people will die from the virus by August 1, according to forecasters.

The United States has been in a race to vaccinate Americans before more transmissible variants can once again send numbers to overwhelming levels.

And although more than 30% of American adults are already fully immunized, experts warn that reluctance to vaccinate and relax preventative measures could prevent the public from achieving the levels of immunity needed to get ahead of the pandemic.

Experts have pointed out that the rare cases of adverse reactions from Covid-19 vaccines are largely offset by the collective protection of generalized vaccination.

“Vaccines have already saved thousands of lives,” Emory University executive associate dean of medicine, Dr. Carlos del Rio, told CNN. “We have seen mortality in the United States drop despite the increase in cases, and that’s because we are vaccinating people. ”
But as these doses make their way into the arms, distance and wearing a mask still play a big role in the fight against the coronavirus.

“If universal mask coverage (95%) was reached next week, our model projects 13,000 fewer cumulative deaths,” IHME researchers said.

Instead, the model calls for people to abandon the use of the mask. “The trend towards relaxed mandates continues, and it seems entirely possible that there is a huge behavioral rebound,” he said.

In a worst-case scenario, 679,000 people will have died by August 1 if more people stop wearing masks and start moving around and gathering more, according to the model.

Where are the numbers now

In several parts of the United States, Covid-19 cases are on the rise again.

At least 13 states have seen an increase of at least 10% in average daily positive Covid-19 cases, according to data from Johns Hopkins University on Friday – an improvement from 21 states on Thursday – but stressing that the fight against the pandemic is far from above.

In Michigan, hospitals are increasingly overwhelmed and reaching capacity in part because of the influx of new cases. National and local authorities are trying to avoid a similar situation and are working to increase vaccination rates among adults, showing signs of continued improvement.

“We have destroyed this virus three times already, but we have to bring it down a fourth time,” Washington Governor Jay Inslee said Thursday.

In response, many states have stepped up efforts to increase vaccination rates.

“We know that these vaccines are really primarily responsible for the 90% reduction in deaths that we have seen in the first 13 weeks of 2021,” said Dr. Clay Marsh, West Virginia’s Covid-19 Tsar on Thursday.

Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Connecticut and Georgia have all seen an increase in the number of vaccines.

New York reported its lowest number of hospitalizations since Dec. 1, and more than half of adults in New York City had received at least one dose of a vaccine, according to Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s office.

Johnson & Johnson vaccine studied

As vaccine distribution continues, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine remains on hold as the company awaits advice from investigators.

A severe form of blood clot in the brain known as cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) may be related to the vaccine, but the rate of occurrence is rare. So far, only six cases have been reported in the United States of the approximately 7 million doses administered to date. One person has died and another is in critical condition, an FDA official said on Tuesday.

One of the six cases involved a 26-year-old woman from Pennsylvania, according to the state health department, who recovered after being treated in a hospital. The state, which is suspending the distribution of J&J until April 24, said federal oversight of vaccine safety was working as intended.

NIH Director Says J&A Vaccine Break  J will give researchers time to do more studies on certain groups

“The safety procedures built into the vaccination process are working and should inspire confidence in the safety and efficacy of available Covid-19 vaccines,” Pennsylvania Acting Health Secretary Alison Beam said. “I urge people who have appointments scheduled to receive a Pfizer or Moderna vaccine to keep those appointments. “

After the CDC and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration recommended a recess on Tuesday, the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices met on Wednesday without voting on taking any further action, saying more than The information was needed, and CDC vaccine advisers scheduled a meeting. for April 23 to determine if further intervention is required.

“I hope we will have a decision very soon on whether or not we can get back on track with this very effective vaccine,” Dr Anthony Fauci said at a Congressional hearing Thursday.

Vaccine recipients who develop a severe headache, abdominal pain, leg pain, or shortness of breath within three weeks of vaccination should contact their health care provider, the CDC and the FDA said.

For those who received the J&J vaccine more than a month ago, the risk is “very low,” CDC senior deputy director Dr Anne Schuchat said in a virtual briefing on Tuesday.

Researchers look into vaccinating children as young as 2

In many states, vaccines are available for everyone 16 and over, but researchers have started testing the Pfizer / BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine in children as young as two years old.

“Stanford Medicine is one of five sites nationwide participating in a Phase 1 trial of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine in children under 5,” Stanford Medicine told CNN in a statement Thursday. . A spokesperson for Stanford Medicine confirmed that researchers began administering doses to participants aged 2 to 5 on Wednesday.

“This phase of the study, which will recruit a total of 144 participants across the country, will test three doses of the vaccine in this age group for safety and tolerability,” the statement said. “Once a safe and tolerable vaccine dose has been established, a larger study of the vaccine’s efficacy will be started in this age group. ”

Almost half of U.S. states have reported an increase in Covid-19 cases this week.  Here's What Experts Are Saying That May Help Stop Another WaveAlmost half of U.S. states have reported an increase in Covid-19 cases this week.  Here's what experts say may help stop a new wave

The Phase 1 study at Stanford is now fully registered.

Researchers at the Cincinnati Children’s Hospital have also started testing the vaccine in young children. Dr Robert Frenck, principal investigator for the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine trials at Cincinnati Children’s Hospital, said on Monday that the first dose was given to participants aged 2 to 4 years old last week.

The Cincinnati Children’s Hospital said nearly 340 children are participating in vaccine trials at the hospital and more will be enrolled soon.

Ben Tinker, Maggie Fox, Deidre McPhillips, Naomi Thomas, Amanda Sealy, Sandee LaMotte, Jen Christensen, Kristina Sgueglia, Juliana Battaglia, Rebekah Riess, Andy Rose, Jacqueline Howard, Virginia Langmaid, Melissa Alonso, Lauren Mascarenhas and Nadia Kounang contributed CNN this report.

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