Typhoon Surigae (Typhoon Bising) is building up quickly and could move dangerously near the Philippines

Typhoon Surigae (Typhoon Bising) is building up quickly and could move dangerously near the Philippines

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Typhoon Surigae has been slowly moving towards the Philippines since it appeared earlier this week, but over the past 24 hours the storm has rapidly intensified.

Surigae, known locally in the Philippines as Typhoon Bising, went from a tropical storm Thursday to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 135 mph (215 km / h).

This rapid intensification occurred due to the ideal conditions for the development of hurricanes / typhoons: wind shear, or the change in wind speed and direction with height in the atmosphere, was very small. Strong wind shear can tear storms like this to pieces, but low wind shear allows them to feed on extremely hot water and transform into a powerful storm.

Continuous low shear and excellent flow will allow Surigae to thrive in warm water flowing a few degrees above normal for this time of year. In fact, it’s possible that Surigae will reach super typhoon status (winds over 150 mph, 240+ km / h) within a day or two.

Forecast is getting closer to the Philippines

Earlier in the week, projections for Surigae were expected to follow west to the Philippines before turning to the northwest and north, comfortably missing the Philippines to the east. However, over the past few days, several weather forecast models have shown that the storm has a tendency to move closer to the central Philippines.

While most forecast models, as well as official forecasts from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and local authorities with the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), show the center of Typhoon Surigae passing about 100 miles offshore from the Philippines on Saturday night and Sunday, the storm will pass close enough to have significant impacts.

On this current track, the strongest winds over 160 km / h and the worst precipitation would remain offshore, but the storm would pass close enough to bring tropical storm force winds (39-73 mph, 63-117 km / h). ) and four to eight inches (100-200 mm) of rain.

This rain and wind could be enough to cause localized flooding, minor property damage and power outages. PAGASA has already issued warnings as conditions are expected to deteriorate on Sunday. If the westward trend continues, the impact will worsen and additional warnings will be issued.

Regardless of the exact course, a storm of this magnitude will generate giant waves and area mariners have been urged to exercise caution.

Even though Surigae remains offshore this weekend, it will need to be watched until next week as it moves slowly northwest and north.

To what extent the storm curves will determine the impacts for the northeastern parts of Luzon. Some weather forecast models show the storm is also getting extremely close to this section of the Philippine coast on Tuesday and Wednesday, but other models and official forecasts continue to be further offshore with limited impacts. Time will tell us.

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