Red wings and capitals
The Detroit Red Wings and Washington Capitals are both winners for adding much-needed excitement to a rather outdated deadline after they hit a hit deal just on the buzzer. The Full Trade: Detroit sent forward Anthony Mantha to Washington for forwards Jakub Vrana, Richard Panik, a first-round pick in 2021 and a second-round pick in 2022.
Vrana, 25, has been a more effective attacking player than Mantha, 26, since the 2018-19 campaign:
|P / PG||0,65||0,70|
|P / 60 (5 against 5)||2,49||1,94|
|YOU / G||14:25||18:14|
The key is points per 60 minutes five to five since Mantha averages almost four minutes more per game than Vrana. By gleaning Vrana’s production in the front row minutes, he has the potential to become a 70+ point player. It’s not always that simple, as frontline minutes usually come with more difficult confrontations. Whether he can handle this remains to be seen.
Points are not everything, however. Both players have also posted outstanding underlying numbers over the past three seasons.
The biggest difference is in Mantha’s superior defensive metrics on the far right of the chart. The 6-foot-5, 234-pound player also passes the visual test as a top defensive player, given his ability to skate for his height.
However, the Red Wings are clear winners in this profession. GM Steve Yzerman has a winger who has proven he can produce at a similar pace to Mantha, while also securing first and second round picks to help with the rebuild.
Now the deal could end up being a win for Washington too – it’s just not so sure. Mantha is already a defensive upgrade from Vrana, and it’s possible he could reach his full attacking potential as a 30-goal forward while playing on a second row with Nicklas Backstrom and TJ Oshie.
The Caps also get cost certainty with Mantha. He signed until 2023-24 at $ 5.7 million per year. Vrana is making $ 3.35 million this year, but it’s a call for applications at the end of the season. His AAV probably doesn’t come close to Mantha’s (probably between $ 4-5 million), but the Panik deal makes a difference here. He’s on the books for $ 2.75 million through 2022-23, which is way too much for a fourth row player on a team against the Cape. For the next two seasons, Mantha will likely cost $ 1-2 million less than Vrana plus Panik combined. It may sound marginal, but it’s huge for a contending team.
Washington is clearly in a win-now mode given most of its core is on the wrong side of 30. If the Caps think Mantha is a big enough improvement over Vrana to help them win another Cup, it’s worth it. worth sacrificing draft picks.
Bruins de Boston
The Bruins arguably landed the best player available at a bargain price, acquiring Taylor Hall from the Buffalo Sabers – along with fourth-row Curtis Lazar – in exchange for a second-round pick and Anders Bjork.
A second-round pick for Hall is a bargain for Boston. Other top rentals such as Nick Foligno, David Savard and Kyle Palmieri all cost first-round picks. Hall came at a cheaper acquisition cost than Sam Bennett and Mattias Janmark. Yes, you read that right. It’s a wise job from Bruins general manager Don Sweeney. It also appears to be a poor assessment of the market by Kevyn Adams, GM of the Sabers, but it is possible that he was handcuffed due to Hall’s ban-on-movement clause.
Yes, Hall is having a miserable season, scoring just two goals and 17 assists in 37 games for Buffalo, but it’s well worth the bet for Boston. The former MVP has been seriously unlucky this year, converting just 2.3% of his shots. That’s almost 8% below his career average and the NHL league average of 10%.
It’s not hard to imagine Hall coming out of his crisis with a much superior Bruins team while playing on a second row with David Krejci and Craig Smith or David Pastrnak.
Meanwhile, Boston also bolstered their blue line by getting Mike Reilly from the Ottawa Senators for a third round pick. The 27-year-old has recorded 19 assists in 40 games this season while also posting extremely solid underlying numbers on a poor Sens side. He doesn’t play tough minutes, but his expected goal share of 51.3% led all of Ottawa’s blue lines despite an offensive zone start percentage of just 35.6.
Reilly isn’t the sexiest addition, but he fills a great need on a beleaguered Bruins blue line.
Bjork doesn’t move the needle that much. The 24-year-old has only scored five points in 30 games this season and his cap is likely capped as a third row at best.
Columbus blue jackets
The Blue Jackets have had strong returns for their two biggest assets – Nick Foligno and David Savard. In exchange for the two rentals, they landed two first-round picks, a third-round pick and a fourth-round pick. During a trading period where only four first-round picks have been moved, getting half of them is a good job from GM Jarmo Kekalainen.
Yes, those first-round picks will likely be near the low in the first round in an unpredictable draft, but Columbus is in the process of resetting and has done well to get the best possible returns. Remember in 2019 when the Jackets went all-in and didn’t choose until the fourth round? With three picks in the first round this season, the Jackets will have the chance to replenish their pipeline of prospects.
The Jets made just one move before the deadline, luring Jordie Benn of the Vancouver Canucks for a sixth-round draft pick in 2021. Benn is nothing more than a deep blue-liner and will look good. struggling to break through a weak Winnipeg top six.
The Jets badly needed a defenseman who could play in their top four, but failed to remedy it. If they weren’t comfortable with giving up the first and third round picks to David Savard, there were much better options than Benn to help the blue line. Mike Reilly, Brandon Montour, Dmitry Kulikov and Jon Merrill would all have been better additions, and none of them cost more than a third-round pick.
The Toronto Maple Leafs again separated themselves from the rest of the North Division by adding Nick Foligno, Riley Nash, Ben Hutton and David Rittich. Winnipeg, arguably Toronto’s biggest competition in the division, could have narrowed the gap to the Leafs with improvements on the blue line, but instead the lack of aggression from general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff widened it. .
The Predators were generally expected to be sellers for more than a month before the deadline, but a six-game winning streak at the end of March saw Nashville return to the playoffs and changed. GM David Poile’s plans.
But should these plans have changed?
The Chicago Blackhawks came in four points behind Nashville on Monday with a game in hand, while the Dallas Stars – who are expected to pick up Tyler Seguin soon – are six points behind with three games in hand. Nashville will likely make the playoffs, but that’s not guaranteed.
Even with the Predators securing the 4th seed in the Central Division, a first-round surprise against the Tampa Bay Lightning or the Carolina Hurricanes seems highly unlikely.
Now the Preds could lose by waiting for UFA Mikael Granlund for nothing, and they’ve probably missed their best chance to maximize Mattias Ekholm’s return, a UFA 2022.
The Predators added full-back Erik Gudbranson for a seventh-round pick, but his presence in the roster arguably makes them a worse team.
(Source analytique: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)
(Cap source: CapFriendly)