Toronto could see 2,500 daily cases of coronavirus by end of April, city doctor says

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Toronto could see around 2,500 cases of COVID-19 per day by the end of April if the current rate of transmission remains the same, the city’s top doctor said on Monday.

In a presentation to the Toronto Board of Health, Dr Eileen de Villa said the third wave of the pandemic “is wreaking havoc” in the city.

“Overall this indicates that at this time what we can anticipate from this third wave will likely be worse than what we have seen so far during the pandemic,” the medical officer of health said. .

“As I have mentioned several times before, this is due to increased transmission and increased severity associated with this B.1.1.7. worrisome variant, which is now the dominant strain. “

De Villa added that the projection of around 2,500 daily infections by the end of April is based on the current rate of COVID-19 transmission as well as vaccinations. If the transmission rate remains stagnant after April, the city could experience more than 6,000 daily cases of COVID-19 by June.

Toronto’s record for daily COVID-19 cases was 1,642 and was recorded during the second wave of the pandemic.

The city on Monday recorded 1,269 new cases of COVID-19 as well as 44 new hospital admissions – five in intensive care. There have also been five other deaths linked to the disease in Toronto.

De Villa said the city was reporting a seven-day average of 941 COVID-19 cases, a 116% increase from data presented three weeks ago.

Speaking at a press conference on Monday, de Villa said the city is currently experiencing “explosive and exponential growth” in COVID-19 variants.

“The old COVID-19 virus is bulldozed by variant B.1.1.7, with the other two main variants also present in Toronto,” she said.

When asked if the city is considering further public health restrictions to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus, de Villa said she supported any action that could be taken to ‘function reasonably on the ground’.

“Rest assured that there are a lot of conversations going on between us and other public health units across the province,” she added.

There are “differences in vaccine coverage” in Toronto, says de Villa

Data presented to the board of health shows that the areas with the highest case activity in the city have some of the lowest vaccination rates.

De Villa said there were “challenges” with immunization coverage throughout the city.

immunization coverage in Toronto

According to the data, which was last updated on April 8, some of the neighborhoods with the highest immunization coverage are Forest Hill South (28.9%), Casa Loma (28.9%), Kingsway South (28.8%), Rosedale-Moore Park (28.1%) and Yonge-St. Clear (27.8%)

Here is where each of these neighborhoods ranks in terms of cases per 100,000 inhabitants:

• Forest Hill Sud: 168

• Casa Loma: 237

• Kingsway Sud: 140

• Parc Rosedale Moore: 225

• Yonge-St. Clair: 168

Areas identified by the city as having the lowest immunization coverage include: Mount Olive-Silverstone-Jamestown (7.7%), Black Creek (9.6%), Henry Farm (9.8%), Taylor Massey (9 , 9%), and Humbermede (10 percent).

These neighborhoods have a significantly higher number of cases per 100,000 residents, according to the city scorecard:

• Mont Olive-Silverstone-Jamestown: 667

• Black Creek: 961

• Ferme Henry: 515

• Taylor Massey: 676

• Humbermede: 1 164

“Unfortunately, the regions with the highest rates continue to have some of the lowest vaccination rates as well, so our work is reduced for us, but I can assure you that this does not go unnoticed for us,” a declared from Villa.

According to the latest data from the city scorecard, just over 17% of the population of Toronto has received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Only 2.3% received both doses.

De Villa recommends that the board of health ask the federal and provincial governments to prioritize and increase the supply of Toronto’s COVID-19 vaccines.

She also recommends that council urge the Ontario government to prioritize COVID-19 vaccination registration for priority neighborhoods.

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