Tesla Quarterly Sales Trend and 2021 Forecast

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Tesla Quarterly Sales Trend and 2021 Forecast


Following the release of Tesla’s Q1 production and delivery figures, I wanted to take a closer look at Tesla’s long-term delivery trends. To make things a little more fun, however, I go out on a thin branch and also create charts forecasting Tesla’s quarterly deliveries for the rest of the year. Take a look and tell me where, why and how I look like an idiot. (Also, feel free to insert your own numbers or graphics in the comments below the article!)

I’ll start with the simplest subject – Quarterly Tesla deliveries of all models combined. So i will jump to Quarterly deliveries of Tesla Model 3 + Tesla Model Y and Tesla Model S + Tesla Model X, which Tesla reports quarterly. Finally, I venture into the “choose your own noose” game and I part ways delivery quote for each of the 4 models.

Interactive graphics are included at the bottom of the article. They are much better to watch if you are not on the phone.

Obviously, Tesla saw a big increase in quarterly deliveries from 2013 to 2021. The past two quarters have been great for Tesla, and many believed Tesla could never reach that height. If you double Tesla’s Q4 2020 and Q1 2021 numbers from Tesla to estimate for the full year, you get annual sales of 730,740. A lot of people who have followed Tesla’s story over the past year decade (dare I say the most?) believed that Tesla could never produce and deliver 500,000 vehicles per year. The last few quarters have been the big rationale that those of us who believed in Elon Musk and Tesla have been waiting for a long time.

However, by putting these numbers on the same scale as the following chart (as I did), you can tell that there is also a lot of room for improvement. I anticipate that we will see enough improvements over the next few quarters to fill that space. Here’s my forecast, which I have to say is fueled in part by Rodney Hooper who told me in a podcast recording on Friday (which we’ll be releasing soon) that he would see Tesla reach 900,000 deliveries in 2021:

Naturally, that’s what experts call a WAG (wild estimate), but my forecast for the next few quarters is: 210,000 deliveries in Q2 2021, 240,000 deliveries in Q3 2021 and 275,400 deliveries in Q4 2021.

The chart seems logical, and the quarterly numbers increase as Tesla’s production capacity increases. I’m not going into the territory of a million vehicles that I know some are waiting for. Others, I’m sure, don’t expect more than 700,000 deliveries. We’ll see.

You can view specific quarterly figures in the interactive charts at the bottom.

Looking at the split model Tesla released, you might notice a trend.

Yes, mainstream models are booming. Meanwhile, production of the S and X models was at zero in Q1, resulting in lower deliveries than the bottom.

I’m expecting a rebound from the S and X models, of course, but I’m not expecting huge production capacity for these models and just predicting a return to pre-collapse numbers, so that production capacity is slowly increasing.

Tesla’s goal will be to increase the production capacity of its physically smaller sales behemoths, particularly the Model Y.

The Model Y was the climber for the last quarter – in fact, the only model that has seen deliveries soar. He’s clearly trying to push to the Model 3. And that shouldn’t take too long.

For various reasons, I expect Model Y to be in more demand in the long run than Model 3 – perhaps much higher demand. I also expect it to hit the current Model 3 level faster than it took for the Model 3 to get there. About 75% of their rooms are shared, but the Model Y offers more space and a higher seating position, which people love. As the production capacity of the Model Y increases especially in China, I think we’ll just see this model climb, climb and climb throughout the year.

After 2021, well, we’ll see. We have Giga Berlin and Giga Texas online. The Cybertruck is expected to hit the market. Tesla should be able to switch more between Model 3 and Model Y production as overall production capacity increases and it sees where there is more need.

Here are bar charts showing the same numbers in a different way, but I am only including the interactive charts (also note that these are not fixed scale charts, unlike the ones above):

Here are the rest of the interactive charts (versions of the static charts shared above):

The end.


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