Official Covid R STALLS rate close to critical 1 as Sage fails to accept UK figure for second week

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Official Covid R STALLS rate close to critical 1 as Sage fails to accept UK figure for second week



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The official rate of coronavirus R has stalled near the critical 1 in England.
As infections continue to fall across the country, the rate of R has remained stagnant at 0.8 to 1 for the third week in a row.

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The R rate in each region of England
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Infection rates are dropping across the UK. Pictured: People enjoy spring in Green Park, April 8Credit: Alamy

Sage government advisers last week could not agree on the figure for the whole of the UK because the number of cases is so low.

Sage said again today: ‘No UK estimate of R and growth rate has been agreed. “

The R rate has remained relatively constant and below 1 since February 5, having peaked on January 15 between 1.2 and 1.3.

The R rate reflects the outbreak with a slight lag, as it takes up to three weeks for changes in the spread of the disease to be evident.

Therefore, today’s estimates are unlikely to take into account the impact of the Rule of 6, which went into effect in England on March 29.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said today that in the two weeks leading up to April 3, the number of people testing positive for the virus had been stable.

It is estimated that one in 340 people in England had Covid-19, a slightly higher prevalence compared to the figure of 1 in 370 given last week, the ONS said.

He estimated that 161,900 people within the community population in England had Covid-19.

It comes as:

The R represents the number of people to whom an infected person will transmit Covid, which means that currently each patient transmits the virus to less than one other person.

When it is 0.8 to 1, that means that on average, every ten people with coroanvirus will infect between eight and ten other people.

R must remain below 1 for the epidemic to decrease. Anything greater than one means the epidemic is growing.

The R number can be removed by restricting social contacts, which is why locks were used.

But as society opens up, it will undoubtedly increase as people socialize with more friends and family, increasing the risk of the spread of Covid.

However, with the triumph of vaccines, cases are expected to remain low overall – but that’s not guaranteed.

Sage data now shows that the R-rate could reach 1 in all parts of England except the South East.

FALL OF INFECTIONS

Meanwhile, the growth rate is estimated to be -4% to 0%, which means that the number of new infections decreases by 0 to 4% every day.

This figure has also not changed from last week.

Sage’s post comes after experts at the ZOE Symptom Tracker app yesterday revealed their R-rate forecasts.

The app’s data also estimates that the UK R rate is currently 0.7.

Data from the app shows that regional values ​​place England at 0.8, Wales at 0.5 and Scotland at 0.8.

Experts said the R-value reflects the significant drop in cases over the past week.

It’s unclear why Sage’s official estimates haven’t dropped for three weeks.

Meanwhile, Public Health England reported data which showed cases had dropped in all parts of England except one.

And scientists say the link between infections and deaths appears to be breaking – a sign the vaccines are working.

The data pushed the Prime Minister to unlock – as Wales said today it will ease restrictions sooner than expected.

Outdoor activities organized for up to 30 people – including outdoor weddings – can take place from April 26 instead of May 3.

The reopening of gymnasiums and recreation centers will now be authorized from May 3, postponed for a week from May 10.

And two people can meet indoors from May 3 – compared to May 17 in England.

It was reported yesterday that coronavirus cases fell 32% in one week in the UK, with 3,030 new cases diganosed.

Another 53 deaths were also reported, bringing the total to 126,980.

The increase in cases brings the total number since the start of the pandemic to 4,370,321.

Today’s infection figure is down from last Thursday’s 4,479 figure – and significantly lower than the 6,219 reported a fortnight ago.

Deaths are up very slightly from the 51 deaths reported this time around last week, but below the 63 deaths recorded on March 25.

UK Covid cases drop 32% in one week as 3,030 more infections are recorded in one day and 53 more deaths

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