Nicola Sturgeon to fall short of majority as Alex Salmond’s Alba party deprives SNP of key list seats, poll finds

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The SNP is on the verge of narrowly missing a majority in Holyrood due to voters choosing Alex Salmond’s Alba party over Nicola Sturgeon’s party, a new poll has revealed.

Nicola Sturgeon is expected to miss a majority according to a new poll by Savanta ComRes.
The poll, conducted by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman, shows the SNP out of 64 MSPs, one running out of a majority, and the Alba party returning no MSPs with 3% of the list votes.
However, the May 6 election would bring back a pro-independence majority of 74 MPs with 10 Scottish Green MPs also expected to be elected.

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The survey interviewed 1,007 Scottish adults aged 16 or over between April 2 and 7, 2021.
The SNP’s poor place on the regional list is what will deprive the prime minister of an overall majority in Holyrood.
Support for independence is also on a razor’s edge with 45% of voters saying they would vote yes and no if a second Scottish independence referendum was held tomorrow, with nine percent of voters still undecided.
With do not know ruled out, support for independence and union is neck and neck with both at 50 percent.
If the results after the May election match the ballot, the SNP would return a constituency vote of 49% (up one point from March) and a list vote of 40% (no change from March ).
This would lead to a return of 64 MSPs including two less than in 2016 from the regional list.
Alba’s attempts to win MSPs would also fail with their 3% regional list vote, with the majority of their support coming from SNP voters.
Although the sample size of Alba voters is extremely small, around 6% of SNP voters in 2016 said they would support Mr Salmond’s party in May.
That drops to 4% of SNP voters slated for 2021 who say they will vote for the SNP in this constituency election, followed by Alba on the list.
If all Alba voters returned to the SNP, Ms Sturgeon’s party would return a majority of three MSPs with an improved overall number of pro-independence MSPs when combined with the Scottish Greens instead of narrowly missing a majority.
The poll also shows the Scottish Tories are set to lose six seats under Douglas Ross with a constituency vote of 23% (no change) and a list vote of 21% (down three points), with the party predicting to return 25 MSPs.
Scottish Labor Anas Sarwar also saw a slight drop in the constituency vote, down two points to 18%, but party support in the regional list remained static at 18% with a return of 23 MPs, one less than in 2016.
The Scottish Greens are the main winners from 2016 results with their regional list vote share of 9%, down one point from March, reporting a record ten MSPs.
The Scottish Liberal Democrats are also set to win a seat and dismiss seven MPs with six percent of the constituency vote (down two points) and seven percent of the list vote (up one point).
All for Unity, George Galloway’s Unionist party was not motivated by Savanta ComRes, with three percent of voters supporting “other parties”.
The scale of the challenge for Alba to gain ground in this election is underscored by the fact that Mr Salmond is Scotland’s most unpopular politician.
The poll shows the former prime minister returned a net “favorability” rating of -51%, 23 points lower than Boris Johnson (-28%, up two points) and more than 70 points behind Sturgeon on + 20% cent, up three points from March.
Two-thirds of Scots also believe that the former SNP leader is untrustworthy (67%), dishonest (65%) and dishonest (66%), although almost half (47%) believe he is clever.
Overall, almost two-thirds (63%) of Scottish voters believe Mr Salmond is unfit for public office, with less than one in five (19%) saying he is fit to become a member of Parliament and 18% declaring not to do so. know.
Voters planning to vote for the Scottish Tories were the most likely to say Mr Salmond was fit for public office with one in five (19%) of Tory voters saying he was fit for a post, followed by a similar number of SNP voters (17%). ).
However, more than two-thirds (69%) of voters planning to vote in the SNP said they believed their former party leader was unfit for public office.
Anas Sarwar, whose popularity continues to rise with his net favorability rating now at +2 percent, up two points from March, has yet to see his popularity translate into electoral gains.
Simon Cereda, senior consultant at Savanta ComRes, said the emergence of the Alba party and lost SNP votes “could prove costly”.
He said: “The latest data from Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman shows how difficult it will be for the SNP to reach its expected majority in May. The votes lost to Alex Salmond’s Alba Party, even the small numbers we collect, can prove costly.
“Although Alex Salmond recorded some of the worst personal notes in British politics, his grassroots devotees could still deprive Nicola Sturgeon of control of Holyrood. Moreover, a strong performance from the Scottish Greens could also be a blow to the SNP’s ambitions.
“Elsewhere, although Anas Sarwar’s leadership has taken a positive start, Scottish Labor seems unlikely at this time to translate this into electoral gains. Positive personal approval ratings won’t mean anything to Anas Sarwar unless he can stop his party from ceding ground to Holyrood.
The Scottish government has seen its popularity rebound from its sharp decline between February and March, up 5% to net favorability of + 16%.
Patrick Harvie, the Scottish Greens co-leader, suffered a four percent drop in popularity and is now tied with Douglas Ross (down one point) on -11 percent in net favorability.
Willie Rennie is on -7 percent of net favorability, also down 1 percent, with Lorna Slater, Scotland’s co-leader of the Greens, up one point to -5 percent.
The number of Scots wanting to see a referendum in the next two years has seen a slight increase from previous polls, with 38% of Scots believing it should take place within two years and 53% believing it should take place within two years. take place within two years. the next five years or sooner.
However, more than one in five Scots (22%) never want another independence referendum, with one in nine saying it should take place in more than ten years.

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