How many people can you still see and avoid COVID-19? This new risk assessment is sobering as another lockdown persists

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 How many people can you still see and avoid COVID-19?  This new risk assessment is sobering as another lockdown persists


Ontario is making further progress to contain the spread of COVID-19, but there are still many potential places where people could contract the virus.

While provincial guidelines require that indoor gatherings in homes be limited to household members (as well as singles who have partnered with a household), the new rules that take effect on Saturdays will still allow weddings, funerals and religious gatherings, as long as they are limited. at 15 percent capacity inside.

That’s not all. All stores in Ontario can remain open, including big box retailers, as long as they meet certain capacity limits.

So depending on the size of the place, you might still find yourself inside with a lot of people. And this is where things can get risky.

New calculations from biostatistician and consultant Ryan Imgrund show how many people you will need to meet next month to have a 50% chance of being exposed to COVID-19. The data, broken down by public health unit, is sobering.

In Toronto’s traditional hotspot, you have a 50% chance of being exposed to COVID-19 if you meet 56 people next month, according to Imgrund’s calculations. In Peel, you have a 50% chance of being exposed if you meet 63 people the following month, whereas in York it’s 65 people and in Durham it’s 74 people.

Imgrund said transmission always increases when holidays and gatherings take place.

“The Easter long weekend is the perfect time for this. Stick to the only essential interactions, ”he said. “The worst thing you can do is hang out indoors, unmasked, with other people for long periods of time. When you do, your chances of catching COVID-19 will be close to your chances of meeting someone with it. ”

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