Anthony Fauci Predicts US ‘Will Come Close To Some Level Of Normalcy’ By The End Of Summer

Bar of Texas

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          Il semble peu probable que les personnes vaccinées propagent le coronavirus.  Fauci a donc déclaré à Insider que les États-Unis pourraient revenir à la normale plus tôt que nous ne le pensons.
          <p>C'est la question à un million de dollars: quand la vie peut-elle revenir à la normale?

Anthony Fauci is often asked this question.

“It’s very difficult to predict, but I think we would approach a certain degree of normalcy as we approach the end of summer and fall, and a considerable degree of normalcy as we approach the end of summer and fall. let’s get into the winter of this coming year, ”he told Insider in a recent interview.

Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, was specifically referring to life in the United States. He pointed out two main factors that will determine if his schedule is correct: “If we get the overwhelming majority of the population vaccinated, and it turns out I suspect: people who are vaccinated don’t transmit. “

These two variables have a positive trend. A growing body of evidence shows that vaccines authorized by the United States do indeed prevent people vaccinated from easily transmitting the virus, thereby preventing its spread.

“I think in the end it will be,” Fauci said.

As for the number of Americans getting vaccinated, and how quickly, the ramp-up has been impressive. Vaccination rates in the United States doubled from February to March, and then again from early March to early April. More than 3 million doses are now given daily in the United States, on average, and 20% of Americans are fully immunized.

If enough people get vaccinated, US could approach collective immunity

In clinical trials before their injections were cleared, Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson only showed their vaccines to prevent symptomatic COVID-19. They haven’t tested whether their vaccines prevent asymptomatic cases.

But of course, without reducing asymptomatic infections, it is difficult to stop transmission. Now, a growing body of research suggests that people who receive the vaccines are less likely to spread the virus after all.

Yet, said Fauci, “We haven’t yet definitively proven that. “

Studies are also increasingly showing that snapshots offer protection that lasts for at least six months.

A member of FDNY EMS receives a COVID-19 vaccine on December 23, 2020 in New York City.
Michael Santiago / Getty Images

Once enough Americans are vaccinated, the United States could approach herd immunity: the point at which enough people are either vaccinated or immunized due to infection to prevent the overall spread of the virus. Fauci estimated that this threshold could be between 70% and 85% of the population.

“If we could just hold on for a moment, we would reach a point where protecting the community at large from the vaccine would make it really very unlikely that we would have another outbreak,” he said.

If the vaccination rate in the United States continues to double month-over-month, the country could reach that threshold as early as June.

Already, President Biden has asked states to move the date on which every American over 16 will be eligible for a vaccine to April 19. According to a Kaiser Health News poll, the percentage of Americans who said they were hesitant to get the vaccine has halved since January. And on Friday, Pfizer asked U.S. regulators to make its vaccine available to teens between the ages of 12 and 15, because a recent trial showed it worked for that age group.

“We would ultimately like to integrate, and must integrate, children into this mix,” Fauci said at a Senate hearing in March.

Fauci said the United States should not “withdraw prematurely”

Patrons of the West Alabama Ice House in Houston, Texas, June 2020.
MARK FELIX / AFP / AFP via Getty Images

Determining when we’ll get back to normal, of course, depends on how that’s defined.

If normal means a return to non-essential travel, things are looking up: The CDC announced last week that vaccinated Americans can travel by plane, train, or bus to the United States without the need to quarantine or to get tested. However, they must wear masks.

But whether normalcy involves returning to frequent meals at indoor restaurants, or going to bars, concerts and sporting events regularly without much risk of coronavirus infection, that’s a more complicated question.

States like New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania have already eased coronavirus-related restrictions on height collection and relaxed capacity limits at restaurants and gyms. Texas, meanwhile, has removed capacity restrictions for all state-owned businesses, including bars.

But all of these changes contradicted CDC recommendations, and recent reopenings have coincided with spikes in cases. The rate of new infections is on the rise in 18 states.

“We are at an interesting crossroads, where the virus in this country is leveling off at a really worrying level, over 60,000 new infections a day,” Fauci said. “So it’s kind of a race between the vaccine and the possibility of another surge. “

In his own life, Fauci said, he always avoids crowded, indoor places where people take off their masks, even though he’s vaccinated. The CDC also recommends that vaccinated Americans avoid large and medium-sized gatherings and continue to mask themselves. For most people, that means continuing to approach restaurants, bars, and cinemas with great caution.

Still, Fauci is optimistic about avoiding a fourth coronavirus outbreak, given the speed of the U.S. vaccine rollout: “We’re absolutely going in the right direction,” he said.

“I think if we play well, if we keep vaccinating at the rate that we are vaccinating people, and we don’t prematurely back down on our mitigation, then we should be fine,” Fauci added.

We may have to keep wearing masks for a while

woman working mask remotely
A person works on their laptop in Central Park on March 23, 2021 in New York City.
Noam Galai / Getty Images

If the return to normal means anyone can throw away their masks, this is probably the longest delay.

At least 18 states currently do not have mask warrants – several of them, including Texas and Mississippi, canceled their statewide warrants last month.

But Fauci believes the masks could stick around next year, given the overwhelming research showing how effectively masks reduce the spread of the coronavirus.

When asked for a prediction on when masks will cease to be the default, Fauci “didn’t want to go. “

“Someone will come back and throw it in my face,” he said.

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