Parts of Massachusetts could receive 10 inches of heavy, wet snow on Saturday – CBS Boston

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BOSTON (CBS) – The forecast for snow and rain this weekend in southern New England has been difficult to pin down.

Over the past week or so, the patterns have gone from nothing at all, to a warm and windy rainstorm, to a winter northeast and back again. Currently, at the time of this writing, approximately 24 hours after the storm hit, we still have a range of solutions that are not ideal.

Winter Storm watches were displayed prior to this storm. These watches will likely be hoisted on winter storm warnings on Friday afternoon, with the likelihood of a foot of snow increasing.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

This forecast is trickier as we would like to have it near the storm peak. A wide range of model outputs show snow loads for central and eastern Massachusetts. While this cannot be completely ruled out, these raw model results overlook a few things.

First, these model releases are typically set at a 10: 1 ratio of 10 inches of snow for every inch of rain. With only slightly favorable temperatures for the duration of the storm, the ratio used by the weather team at WBZ-TV is closer to 7: 1.

Second, the ocean is still quite warm, ranging from 45 to 50 degrees, significantly above average for this time of year.

So any wind blowing from the water (which, of course, applies in a northeast) will flood the shore with fresh air.

Also, there really isn’t a significant cold air source nearby. Most of the time, to cause a big snowstorm in our area, you need an area of ​​high pressure in the north to pump the cold air from Canada to the south. This simply does not exist on this go-around, so the storm will have to produce its own cold air by pulling it from higher levels of the atmosphere. It will take snow at a very hard clip for this to happen, but it is possible!

Simple isn’t it? Has!

Let’s get down to business as best we can.

CHRONOLOGY:

A few rain showers arrive on Friday afternoon and evening, not that strong. The showers continue from Friday evening to Saturday morning.

Between 7 a.m. and noon on Saturday, the storm begins to deepen south of Long Island and precipitation is expected to start filling up and increasing in intensity.

If there is to be a “peak” from this storm, it will come Saturday afternoon and evening. This is clearly the timeframe to watch. With the right storm track and intensity, we would see heavy, wet snow falling across most of central Massachusetts early Saturday afternoon.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

The rain / snow line would likely collapse eastward to some extent later in the afternoon, changing the rain to wet, mushy snow closer to 128 and into Metrowest.

HOW MUCH:

This is a forecast that only has moderate confidence due to the multiple moving parts, but it’s gone.

A solid snowfall for Worcester County in Middlesex County and southern New Hampshire could provide 10 ″ + of snowfall. It is possible with mesoscale bands that snow is falling at a rate of 1 to 2 “per hour.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

As you get closer to 495 and 128, the uprights drop to 3 to 5 inches. The South Shore and North Counties of Bristol and Plymouth are likely to receive mainly rain with a few light layers mixing.

If regions were to receive more than 10 ″ of this mushy snow, scattered blackouts would certainly be possible.

THE WINDS:

Strong wind watches are in effect for the South Shore, Cape Town and the islands.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

As the storm leaves the area, a strong westerly wind could reach over 55 km / h. Scattered power outages possible with this type of wind gust.

COASTAL FLOODS:

The tides will be astronomically low, so don’t expect major coastal flooding issues. High tides occur around 2 p.m. Saturday and 3 a.m. Sunday, shortly before and after peak winds.

As always, we invite you to stay tuned for updates before and during the storm on WBZ-TV, CBSBoston.com and CBSN Boston – we’ve got you covered!

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