Map shows how experts predict Northeast Covid cases will change after Christmas


A map shows what experts think will happen to the number of Covid-19 cases in the Northeast after Christmas.
Scientists at Imperial College London have mapped areas they believe will face a spike in infections as the New Year approaches.

On the map, experts used a probability scale that changes from light gray to red depending on the number of cases exceeding 100 per 100,000 population expected on each date.

Mirror Online reports that, according to the map, level 3 hotspots, including Leeds, will exit the red zone by December 25, and cases in previous areas of concern such as Liverpool will continue to decline.

In the northeast, Sunderland and North Tyneside are expected to see a substantial drop in cases by January 3 – data shows.

But at Christmas, much of south-east England sees a sea of ​​cities in the 80-100% probability range – including all of London – just like Birmingham, Manchester, Edinburgh, Cardiff and Swansea.

The same can be said for Newcastle, Northumberland, County Durham and South Tyneside, which are expected to remain deeply in the grip of the infection by at least January 3.

Meanwhile, experts have predicted that Gateshead, which has the region’s lowest infection rate, has only a 17% chance of registering more than 100 cases per 100,000 a week after Christmas.

London, which was plunged into Tier 3 yesterday, has the highest case rate in the country, at 319.3 per 100,000, according to the latest government figures.

The city, which has a population of nearly nine million, also saw the largest increase in week-to-week case rates.

Dr Yvonne Doyle, Medical Director of Public Health England, said: “A smaller, shorter and more local Christmas is the safest for you and your loved ones. It is essential to remember that about one in three people may never experience symptoms, so could get past this. virus on unintentionally.

A map showing many major cities in the red zone as of January 1

View the full interactive map here

“Remember to keep your distance, wear a face mask in confined spaces and wash your hands regularly. ”

Despite the skyrocketing of cases in the coming weeks, the government chose to continue with controversial Christmas bubbles, which will allow three households to mingle indoors for five days from December 23.

Making a statement in the House of Commons, Matt Hancock said the country had “come this far” and “must not blow it up now,” after festive truce talks were held on Wednesday.

He said: “As we move into the colder months, we need to be vigilant and keep this virus under control. ”

As of Friday, 28,507 more cases were confirmed in the UK along with 489 deaths, bringing the total to 66,541.

The probability that each region in the Northeast will have more than 100 cases per 100,000 in the first week of January

Newcastle upon Tyne – 88%

Northumberland – 86%

Sunderland – 52%

Gateshead – 17%

Tyneside du Sud – 98%

Tyneside du Nord – 15%

County Durham – 82%

Darlington – 62%

Stockton-on-Tees – 45%

Redcar et Cleveland – 35%

Middlesbrough – 82%


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