UK coronavirus R rate drops to as low as 1 but deaths will continue to rise, scientists warn


The UK coronavirus (R) breeding number has dropped slightly to between 1 and 1.2 across the UK, but deaths will continue to rise, government scientists say. Analysis by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) suggests that infections are likely to rise again in December if lockdowns are lifted everywhere.

He suggests that local restrictions will be needed in some areas in the weeks leading up to Christmas.

Sage has warned that the virus is still spreading and deaths and demand for health care will continue unless R drops below 1 for an extended period.

He said the number of new infections was increasing 1% to 3% every day.

Over the past few weeks, he has put the R between 1.1 and 1.3.

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R tariffs were updated Friday afternoon by Sage

If the R-value is greater than one, the Covid-19 epidemic continues to grow, but if it is less than one, it shows that the epidemic is on the decline.

Separate documents from Sage released on Friday indicate that the national outbreak is still at a “high and controlled” stage.

If this remains the case, or if the epidemic returns to current levels after the national lockdown is lifted on December 2, Sage said there was “little or no opportunity to relax social distancing rules. at Christmas”.

The official number of R breeders is always greater than 1 as infections continue to increase in the elderly.

For England, the R is slightly higher between 1.1 and 1.2, down from a range of 1.1-1.3 the week before.

Here are the R numbers across England:

– Southeast 1.2 to 1.4 (unchanged from a week ago)

– Southwest 1.2 to 1.4 (unchanged)

– East of England 1.1 to 1.4 (unchanged)

– Midlands 1.1 to 1.3 (unchanged)

– North East and Yorkshire 1.0 to 1.2 (down from 1.1 to 1.2)

– London 1.0 to 1.2 (down from 1.1 to 1.3)

– Northwest 0.9 to 1.1 (down from 1.0 to 1.1)

Although the post focuses on England, it suggests that R could have fallen below 1 in Wales and Scotland.

This graph shows the number of Covid-19 patients hospitalized in England

The pessimistic outlook came after two independent studies, which power Sage, suggested that R may now be less than 1 in England.

In his latest R weekly ad, Sage said: “The estimated growth rate means the number of new infections is increasing between 1% and 3% every day.

“Sage is convinced that the epidemic has continued to grow in England over the past few weeks.

“While there is evidence that the growth rate in some parts of the country may be slowing, disease levels are very high in those areas; significant levels of health care demand and mortality will persist until R is reduced and remains well below one for an extended period. ”

The results suggest that level 3 restrictions and in some areas level 2 resulted in an R-value of less than 1. However, government scientists believe level 1 restrictions had little impact.

Covid-19 deaths on the rise in England and Wales

In cities in England that were under Level 3 restrictions before the nationwide lockdown, R is below 1 and new infections are on the decline.

The only entire region to have an R potentially less than 1 was the Northwest with a range between 0.9 and 1.1.

It comes as daily confirmed coronavirus cases jumped 46% to 33,470 on Thursday.

Some officials have suggested that the increase – the highest yet – is due to people going out and socializing just before the current lockdown begins on November 5.

NHS medical director Stephen Powis played down the impact of the hike at a press conference in Downing Street on Thursday.

He said it was “important to look at the number of cases reported over a number of days and not to limit yourself to a single day of isolation.”

Another 563 people had died within 28 days after testing positive for the coronavirus on Thursday.

At least 200 health and primary care workers in the UK have now died after contracting coronavirus, it was confirmed on Friday.

The list of health and social service workers includes those who held positions shortly before their death and where they were likely to come into contact with patients.

The most recent victim was the consultant anesthesiologist Dr Krishnan Subramanian, who died on Thursday.

“Quiet and dedicated,” Dr Subramanian, who was in his 40s, worked at the Royal Derby Hospital.

He was treated at Glenfield Hospital in Leicester before his death.

The figure emerged as England’s former chief medical officer claimed the country was ill-prepared for the coronavirus pandemic, with officials believing a virus “would never travel that far.”

Dame Sally Davies, who left the post in October 2019, said she wondered if the country should rehearse for a coronavirus outbreak in 2015, but was told it was not “coming to us properly” by officials by Public Health England.

She told the Daily Telegraph that officials focused on the threat of an influenza pandemic and were therefore prepared for the “bad pandemic”.

But Public Health England said that was not true, adding: “Dame Sally Davies participated in exercises that specifically predicted a MERS coronavirus scenario in the UK, among other health threats. ”

Dame Sally, who left the post last October, told the newspaper the country was “not as well prepared as we should have been”.

She added, “I asked in a conversation in my office around 2015, should we do Sars? But I was told no, because it would not reach us properly. They said he would die and never travel this far.

“So I asked the question, but it was the folks at Public Health England who said we don’t need to do this, and I’m going to tell Parliament that.

“This advice meant we never seriously sat down and said, ‘Will we have a massive pandemic something else? ”

Nearly 67,000 deaths involving Covid-19 have now occurred in the UK, according to the latest figures, while as of 9 a.m. Thursday there had been 33,470 more laboratory-confirmed coronavirus cases in the UK, the The highest daily figure recorded since the epidemic began.

Medical worker tests person for coronavirus (stock photo)

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A government spokesperson said: ‘This is an unprecedented pandemic and we have taken the right steps at the right time to combat it, guided at all times by the best scientific advice, to protect the NHS and save Lives.

“There is a tremendous amount of work going on behind the scenes, which would not be possible without years of pandemic preparedness, including influenza and other infectious diseases like MERS, SARS and Ebola.

A spokesperson for Public Health England added that planning for an influenza pandemic was at the center of attention as it led the national risk assessment.

They added, “Throughout our time working with Dame Sally Davies, we have agreed that the country should prepare for all threats to health protection, including infections caused by different organisms such as coronaviruses. ”

Meanwhile, nearly 20% of Liverpool’s residents took part in a mass coronavirus test pilot in its first week, according to figures from the city’s mayor.

Joe Anderson said 90,000 people have been tested for Covid-19 since last Friday, when the city started offering testing to everyone, whether or not they show symptoms.

The figure is 18% of the city’s population of just under half a million.

Mr Anderson told BBC Breakfast that 430 people had tested positive, of whom only 200 showed symptoms before being tested.


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