Tar Heel Bets Value in Friday College Football

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Notre Dame Odds -5 [BET NOW]
North Carolina Odds +5 [BET NOW]
Moneyline -189 / +155 [BET NOW]
More under 64,5 [BET NOW]
Time 15 h 30 HE
TV abc
Odds updated Wednesday night and via BetMGM. Get an INSTANT $ 500 deposit match at BetMGM today.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The Irish have spent a goodbye week getting back to good health in the lineup, but injuries on the offensive line will be a factor against North Carolina. Starting goalie Tommy Kraemer and center Jarrett Patterson will both be injured after a total of 1,115 shots in the 2020 season. Zeke Correll and Josh Lugg occupy starting positions with a total of 79 shots over the season.

Notre Dame ranks in the top 25 offensively in Line Yards and Havoc allowed, but all eyes will be on an offensive line with new starters. The Irish continue to run at a pace of 103rd in the country without explosiveness. Notre Dame is outside the top 95 for explosive attacking games, but the expected defensive points scores are just as notable.

Defensive coordinator Clark Lea has done one of his best jobs in the Irish defense 2020. A top 20 ranking in success rate is evidenced by the top 10 scores in Havoc, Line Yards and Finishing Drives. Notre Dame has the ability to stop the run and play tight cover against the pass. The problem comes against the explosive pass.

Notre Dame allowed 13 opponent’s passes to exceed 30 yards. Safeties Kyle Hamilton and Shaun Crawford are two of the top-ranked players on cover for the Irish, but the corner position was a rotation of Clarence Lewis and TaRiq Bracy.


North Carolina Tar Heels

After losing to Virginia and Florida State, the Tar Heels scored 115 points against Wake Forest and Duke. The loss to the Seminoles came from North Carolina’s inability to stop double-threat quarterback Jordan Travis’ explosive run. It was largely the same story against Virignia, as Brennan Armstrong not only passed three touchdowns, but collected another on the pitch.

Teams with double-threat quarterbacks have troubled a defense that is 87th in rush hit rate and outside the top 100 in line yards and tip rate. The good news for head coach Mack Brown is that he has one of the most explosive offensive units in all of college football.

Quarterback Sam Howell targeted wide receiver Dyami Brown on 23 passes over 20 yards, with the receiver losing just one pass during the season. The Heels are among the top 10 teams in terms of success rate and manage to explode with an Offensive Finishing Drives rank of 22nd.



Bet analysis and selection

Brian Kelly made specific mention of the gaze route during his opening week press conference. Howell’s ability to lead the RPO and attract linebacker and safety eyeballs will be the # 1 determining factor in this game.


CLICK ON THE FLOW ARROW TO SEE THE COLLIN MATCHUP

Notre Dame ranks 17th best in coverage, ranking 28th in defended passes per game. Beyond those numbers, there might be reason to believe that North Carolina will succeed in throwing themselves into the field.

The most difficult passing attack Notre Dame has seen to date is Clemson. The Tigers posted a 52% success rate in passing games and made 11 passes over 15 yards. Specifically, Amari Rodgers has avoided 11 tackles during the season, including five against the Irish. Clemson wide receiver Cornell Powell has just 43 targets this season, but four of his six avoided tackles have come against the Irish.

Notre Dame had the advantage as Clemson missed three starters in defense, with primary production missing in pass defense. The Irish can still find plenty of offensive success against North Carolina, but the Heels’ passing attack may be too big for Notre Dame to go undefeated.

To choose: North Carolina +5 or better.

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