Former Goldman Sachs fund manager and current Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal said he was witnessing an unprecedented crash of institutional money buying Bitcoin.
In a new interview with CT’s Giovanni Pigni, Pal says BTC’s return to nearly $ 20,000 is just the beginning.
“From what I know, and I know a lot of people in the industry, they all welcome institutional clients, family offices, endowments, at an enormous rate. But $ 20,000 here is not the same as $ 20,000 back then [in 2017]. Back then it had multiplied by 100 when it hit $ 20,000, we haven’t even started yet.
Later, when things get speculative, we’ll see something similar potentially happening. But the difference is, where these guys get it wrong is they say, “People aren’t that interested.” Yes, but real money is involved and that is a game changer.
Pal says Bitcoin is one of the most unique trades he’s ever seen, and the leading cryptocurrency is likely to benefit in the months to come, regardless of the direction the global economy takes.
“No matter what happens, this money is coming. Let’s look at the reasons. I have a feeling the vaccine takes until the third trimester of next year before it’s really rolled out. We are looking at the European economy, it is declining rapidly. I don’t know how they’re going to handle Christmas and New Years. The US economy has the same problems. I think it will be locked in January and February once the Biden administration enters, as the virus over Thanksgiving, New Years and Christmas is going to grow dramatically. I think we have problems in India after Divali where hundreds of millions of people are celebrating together and I think we are going to have a big second wave in India.
So we have problems. The vaccine takes time to [roll] outside. Event, the Pfizer vaccine must be at -77 degrees. There are impossible logistics to get it out fast enough. So it is not an instant solution. There are not enough doses for everyone. There is going to be a geopolitical struggle over who gets what.
So I think we can write off until the summer, basically. So the economy is weak. So in this scenario, given that we haven’t had a stimulus package in the US and Europe has been slow to get a stimulus package, central banks step in first and end up adopting stimulus measures. raise, but it will not be enough. If I’m right and the economy is worse than expected, we’ll have a much bigger stimulus package and central banks will guarantee that as well. Then after that, I’m wrong.
I’m wrong, is that the vaccine is rolled out in a quarter and we’ve had more stimulus and central banks continue to stimulate. They all have inflation targets that they want to beat and we get the inflation. Well, Bitcoin is going to do well in this area as well. So we have almost both scenarios, I’ve literally never seen a setup like this, where you have almost both scenarios going, it doesn’t matter if you get the right macro call or not, because both come back to the same and it’s really interesting.
Pal updates his prediction for the current Bitcoin cycle. He says $ 150,000 is probably on the low end, but he thinks PlanB’s controversial estimates in the upper $ 250,000 range might end up being too conservative.
“If I had to be conservative, I would say $ 150,000. If I want to be realistic knowing what I know about cash flow, I have a feeling that PlanB’s model is going to underestimate the upside. I know everyone thinks that on this cycle the price will be lower. I just don’t see it because of the amount of money going into space. I actually have a feeling it might exceed his goal of about $ 250,000, but I don’t know. But I like this option. Worst case $ 150,000, best case north of $ 250,000. I mean, find me another job in the world that looks like this.
Pal, who is a longtime crypto investor, says he can afford to take a big risk on Bitcoin and now holds around 75% of his cash net worth in BTC.
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Image en vedette: Shutterstock / Tithi Luadthong