Luthais McCash, a researcher at the University of Leicester specializing in applied mathematics and mathematical modeling, says his experience gave him good insight into the pandemic.
The 26-year-old says he started in mathematical biology at the University of Dundee and his first academic paper, on how to model the spread of cancer, was published when he was 16, reports KentLive.
At the time, a local newspaper in Scotland where he grew up called him a 17-year-old ‘genetic engineer’.
Mr McCash said he warned on various podcasts that the country would exit the lockdown too early, leading to a cycle of outbreaks of the virus lasting at least two years.
He said he doubts a vaccine will change that, as the government has confirmed that any vaccine will be voluntary, so he estimates that it takes at least four-fifths of the population to take it effectively if it is to suppress the coronavirus. .
The most recent YouGov poll found that 21% said they were unlikely to take a vaccine and 12% more were unsure.
Mr McCash, who grew up in Scotland via Bavaria, Germany until the age of 10, now lives with his partner in Canterbury.
He said everything he predicted was correct so far and that the only way people could guarantee the end of the pandemic would be to self-isolate properly, ideally for at least 12 months.
He said: “I said this on a podcast months ago: ‘If only the coronavirus would kill all the stupid people. And I had such a rap on my fingers for that.
“But I said, ‘If you cross the road and don’t look left and right and get hit by a car, any reasonable member of the public would turn around and say it’s their fault, you didn’t look to the left or else you deserved to be touched.
“To me, it’s actually not much different from saying that if you don’t take the necessary precautions, you are more likely to get infected.
“The difference is with the coronavirus, it affects more than yourself. And this is a really serious problem. ”
Mr McCash, who suffers from an autoimmune disease, says he has barely left the house since March except to walk his dog on the beaches and to pick up some take out with his partner.
“It’s a rather sad case that in 2020 there must be a global health crisis to remind people to wash their hands. I mean it’s sad, ”he said.
“I don’t think people themselves realize how infrequently they wash their hands on a daily basis.
“It shows how invincible humans think they are. ”
He says that at the start of the pandemic, he correctly predicted the numbers of cases and deaths, having sent his predictions in advance to people he “trusted”.
But he didn’t do any specific modeling on how things might develop from here.
“It’s actually more difficult to make a prediction now. In the beginning, a lot more of the population did what they were told. Now it’s harder to predict because there is a lot of fluidity.
“I’ll say I’m guessing. But my point – and I hope I’m wrong – is that it will never end unless we adopt a strategy of repression.
“We will develop mechanisms to deal with it better, but it will not go away.
“We have to stop everything. We need a 12 month lockdown. I understand it will have a huge effect on people’s income, people’s lives, but that’s what we need.
“This is enough time to reduce the movement significantly enough to allow the virus to clear itself.” It is not good to say that we are stopping because deaths are down or cases are down, it is not enough. There must be a period after that too.
“I say that by looking at the infection rate and second by looking at the behavioral analysis.
“I’m not a virologist or an immunologist, but ultimately I’m a scientist with a passion for empirical evidence.
“I’m smart and I’m unconventional.
“Sometimes I make assumptions and conjectures about what I said and I’m clear when I do it. ”
Mr McCash says that in addition to his academic research, he is independent as an industry consultant “providing expert mathematical modeling and analysis to organizations on a range of projects.”
He says he recently looked at GP surgery data and analyzed it for predictive modeling, but he’s passionate about the pandemic and the only solution he feels is necessary.
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He said: “The focus now is on everyone to place their hopes on the vaccine and we will weather the storm and everything will be fine. I think it’s flawed.
“I don’t think that’s correct and I don’t think it’s the right way to go.
“To say that the vaccine will fix everything is to put all your eggs in one basket. We don’t know how effective they are, and we don’t know how many people will take them.
“I think people should distance themselves, wear masks, be vigilant, work together in the way you think: if you’re in a store and you’re not wearing a mask, you’re putting everyone in danger.
“Right now people don’t follow the rules. In February, there will be a sharp increase in cases. There will be another lockdown by the summer.
“This Tier system will not help you. As soon as you lift the local lock, people will migrate again.
“I said that in March we would be in this area for at least two years and now we are at eight months.
“It will be cyclical – unless we do something about it. ”